Model with METR time horizon ≥8 hours released in 2026?
4
100Ṁ1352026
57%
chance
4
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This market will resolve to yes if any model is released in 2026 that has a METR time horizon (50% reliability) of at least 8 hours. It will resolve to no, if at the end of 2026, no such model has been released.
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