
Will “flash iron making” replicate by 2027?
3
100Ṁ1102027
38%
chance
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Background
There’s been a slew of articles about a new iron making technology coming out of China. However, I’m a bit suspicious of it for a couple reasons:
I can’t find the actual journal article this is supposed to be based on anywhere. Everyone is just citing SCMP.
SCMP says it was published in the journal “Nonferrous Metals” which doesn’t make any sense given this is a ferrous metal technology.
Resolution Criteria
This market will resolve to YES if:
There is a demonstration (could be academic or commercial) of flash iron making showing the purported three orders-of-magnitude increase in smelting speed by 2027.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
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