Who will ever rank #1 in LMSYS Chatbot Arena Text Leaderboard in 2026?
4
1kแน€1115
2026
86%
Alphabet / Google Deepmind / Gemini
55%
OpenAI / ChatGPT
55%
xAI / Grok
55%
Anthropic / Claude
26%
Mistral
24%
DeepSeek
15%
Microsoft
10%
Meta / Llama
9%
Safe Superintelligence (SSI)
8%
Apple

Chatbot Arena Text Leaderboard or iterations/new versions of it as creator sees fit. If the project is altogether abandoned with no equivalent, the answers that have not yet resolved YES will resolve NO at EOY unless some replacement appears.

If multiple shared #1 ranks, as has been the case in the past, any of those positions count.


If there are no longer ranked numbers, only top spot/ELO would count. If same ELO, but second spot for some trivial/irrelevant reason, still resolves YES.

Answer resolves YES immediately when an update has been confirmed, no matter what duration it stays in top.

Any AI that hasn't been #1 before during 2026, resolves to NO at the end of the year. Note that top position before 2026, e.g. on Dec 30 2025, is not enough to qualify for YES.

I will not trade in this market, resolution might get messy through mergers/acquisitions, changes to the leaderboard, etc.

Let me know if you want to see improvements to criteria.

Remove style control is what counts, i.e. this link. (Unlike the 2025 version of this market.)

See same market but for top 10 below:

/HenriThunberg/who-will-ever-rank-top-10-in-lmsys-n2pQhLAzlh

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