First fully successful Starship v3 flight?
10
125แน1902026
13%
Flight 12
48%
Flight 13
17%
Flight 14
10%
Flight 15
12%
Resolution criteria
This market resolves to the first Starship V3 flight that meets all of SpaceX's stated objectives. SpaceX is targeting the first quarter of 2026 for the debut flight of Starship V3, which will be Flight 12. Resolution will be based on SpaceX's official post-flight statements and https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SpaceX_Starship.
Nits
Individual failures (e.g. engine failures, subsystem problems) that don't affect overall flight objections will not cause a flight to resolve NO. For example, if this market was for block 1 flight 4 would resolve YES even though the landing was off target.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
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