On the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale, to what levels will the 2026 Atlantic season storms reach?
2
2kṀ17552026
59%
Will Bertha reach Category 1 wind speeds?
55%
Will Arthur reach Category 1 wind speeds?
52%
Will Cristobal reach Category 1 wind speeds?
50%
Will Bertha reach Category 2 wind speeds?
50%
Will Cristobal reach Category 2 wind speeds?
48%
Will Arthur reach Category 2 wind speeds?
41%
Will Cristobal reach Category 3 wind speeds?
39%
Will Arthur reach Category 3 wind speeds?
37%
Will Bertha reach Category 3 wind speeds?
31%
Will Bertha reach Category 4 wind speeds?
31%
Will Cristobal reach Category 4 wind speeds?
20%
Will Arthur reach Category 4 wind speeds?
20%
Will Cristobal reach Category 5 wind speeds?
4%
Will Arthur reach Category 5 wind speeds?
4%
Will Bertha reach Category 5 wind speeds?
Each storm/category will be considered a separate YES/NO market, resolved via reporting from https://weather.com/.
Markets will resolve YES within 48 hours of the reported Category upgrade. Markets will resolve NO within 48 hours of the reported dissipation of a named storm or on November 30, 2026, at 11:59 PM EST, whichever comes first.
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This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
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