This market resolves YES if, at any point before 2030, a federal moratorium on most forms of state level AI regulation--necessarily including restrictions against regulation targeted on liability and catastrophic risk mitigation--is in place. It would also count if such a restriction is merely a condition for more than $10B in federal funding for a majority of states, as estimated by a credible source I will seek out if necessary.
In 2025, a proposed moratorium on most kinds of state level AI regulation was proposed and defeated. Amendments to the proposal included exceptions for child safety, deepfakes, and publicity rights, and another amendment changed the proposal from blanket preemption to being a condition for billions of dollars of federal funding. My understanding and intention is that this market would have resolved YES if the final version of that proposal had gone into effect.
Update 2025-11-19 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): While the market primarily targets laws passed by Congress, other mechanisms for a de facto moratorium may also count:
A court ruling that state-level AI regulation is broadly unconstitutional (if upheld) could count
Systematic executive branch action depriving states that regulate AI of on average above $10B (across states) over at most 10 years or the length of the moratorium (whichever is shorter) could count
For executive branch mechanisms, the creator will be conservative before resolving YES, waiting for:
Court challenges to play out
Clear accounting of financial costs if a state still chooses to pass AI legislation
1,000@AdamK this doesn’t count does it?
@satchlj Laws passed by Congress have a clear constitutional basis for preempting state laws, and is primarily what this question was intended to target. However, other mechanisms for a de facto moratorium should probably also count, given that I specified that qualifying moratoria do not literally need to bar state AI regulation altogether. So a court ruling that state-level AI regulation is broadly unconstitutional, if upheld, could count.
So could systematic action by the executive branch to deprive states which regulate AI of on average (across states) above $10B over at most 10 years or the length of the moratorium, whichever is shorter. I'll generally be conservative before resolving YES on the basis of a de facto mechanism like this that does not involve the legislative or judicial branches, waiting for court challenges to play out and for a clear accounting of the financial costs should a state still choose to pass legislation on AI.