When will AI be better at Captcha than an average human | Manifold

When will AI be better at Captcha than an average human

5

1kṀ1693

2030

2%

2025

7%

2026

20%

2027

19%

2028

19%

2029

14%

2030

19%

Other

Resolve when someone demonstrates that a very hard-to-recognize image recognition CAPTCHA (one that humans can barely recognize) can nevertheless be consistently recognized by a freely available LLM.

Update 2025-11-22 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The market will resolve when AI can solve any image recognition CAPTCHA better than humans, where "very hard to recognize" means designed to be hard for machines to recognize (not just arbitrary tasks that happen to be easier for LLMs than humans).

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Can you be more specific about what you allow as captcha? We can probably come up with arbitrary tasks that LLMs can solve more easily than humans. Surely that shouldn't count, right?

@vee by a “very hard to recognize” CAPTCHA I meant one that is designed to be hard for machine to recognize.

So I’m effectively looking for when machine is simply better than human is solving any image recognition CAPTCHA

@AmmonLam today

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