interesting how little sentiment changed over the past month. What kind of event would dramatically shift this market?

"a living, breathing document"

maybe the trump-bubba reveal made him crack

@Dulaman this seems like the most likely possibility I've seen so far

Ukrainians won't accept a deal that is tantamount to their capitulation. Calling the proposal a peace deal is ridiculous. Peace involves repercussions for the aggressor and reparations for the torture, theft, mass murders, kidnapping of kids, and rape.

Meowdy! The rules say any stop in fighting counts—even a surrender. I’ll dig back in tonight to weigh political odds vs. the clear resolution terms. This one’s a nuanced puzzle for sure :3

@MiaCat what are the chances of Putin's surrender?

I dont think Ukraine has a 60% chance of accepting this deal, but I sold because I expect the market to go up

@MaxE it did not go up a whole lot ahaha

@Dulaman yeah

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Are there any pathological or extreme cases that might technically fulfill the terms you've laid out, but that you might not pay out for violating the spirit of it?

If, for instance, Russia happens to have some renewed success in their invasion, and then Ukraine surrenders to them, would the 'peace' (well, lack of conflict) that followers be able to count towards your ceasefire here?
(For a really extreme hypothetical, imagine Russia using a nuclear weapon and Ukraine surrendering in response - the surrender would technically be a ceasefire.)

@MatthewLeong For this market it doesn’t matter how the end of the fighting comes about, just that they stop killing each other. The only edge case I can think of is if the Ukrainian MoD starts blatantly underreporting the number of Russian soldiers killed, which seems very unlikely. In that case I might also consider other reliable sources relating to how much fighting is ongoing.

seems likely

Yes, but it won't be after one day of Trump's presidency, just because "he said it"

why not fill me

If there is a ceasefire before election and then Trump is elected that seems to satisfy
"This market will resolve to YES if, before November 3rd 2026," but want to check.

@ChristopherRandles Oh that’s a good question. I didn’t really intend that interpretation, but I agree that’s what the description implies so I’ll count it. I will say that if there is a conclusive end to the war before the election I’ll resolve NA since that’s a pretty ambiguous case.

@ChristopherRandles has a decent chance of happening

Subsidized for 10k and boosted! Currently shows 25% for trump and 20% for Biden.

@ManifoldPolitics Very surprised Trump is doing better on this.

@voodoo I think it may be pessimism, that ukraine would definitively lose as support was pulled.

@RichardKroon Or they would have to take a deal at manifesting the current borders

@voodoo Why? Ukraine would be under more pressure. Less aid, a somewhat more russia friendly president. Plus, Trump loves making deals, he sees that as the coolest thing