Will a quantum computer with at least 1500 qubits be announced before the end of 2030?
16
1kṀ4355
2031
91%
chance

Technology
Science
Quantum Computing
Cryptography
Get
Ṁ1,000
to start trading!

People are also trading

Will any practical applications of quantum computing be commercially available to retail consumers before end of 2026?
5% chance
Will a quantum computer perform a calculation by 2026 that is impossible for any classical supercomputer?
9% chance
Will a commercially available quantum computer with over 1 million qubits released before 2035?
68% chance
Will there be a quantum computer with 100,000 functioning qbits before 2035?
77% chance
Will IBM produce a functional 100,000 qubit quantum-centric computing system by 2033?
26% chance
Will a quantum computer prove capable of breaking 2048 bit RSA encryption by 2030?
18% chance
Will a fully error corrected quantum computer capable of running 100 million gates be created before 2030?
14% chance
Will IBM be the first to create a quantum computer with over 10,000 qubits?
50% chance
will i get a quantum computer in my lifetime?
42% chance
Will quantum computing be commonly used in commercial applications by 2030?
50% chance
Sort by:

D-Wave announced today: 4,400+ qubit Advantage2™ processor

Built: 2023: IBM Condor has 1,121 qubits

Built: 2024: Caltech tech demo (not a computer, more of a register) holds on average 6,139 qubits

Planned: Pasqual: 10,000 in 2026

Planned: IonQ: 13,312 in 2028

Need to specify what you mean by a quantum computer, and what you mean by a qubit. For example, do you accept IBM's Osprey having 433 qubits?

What do you mean with "announced"? Mentioned that it will be developed? Claimed that it exists? Proven that it exists?

@ErwinRossen Credibly claimed that exists, by a major research or engineering group.

People are also trading

Will any practical applications of quantum computing be commercially available to retail consumers before end of 2026?
-3% 1d5% chance
Will a quantum computer perform a calculation by 2026 that is impossible for any classical supercomputer?
9% chance
Will a commercially available quantum computer with over 1 million qubits released before 2035?
68% chance
Will there be a quantum computer with 100,000 functioning qbits before 2035?
77% chance
Will IBM produce a functional 100,000 qubit quantum-centric computing system by 2033?
26% chance
Will a quantum computer prove capable of breaking 2048 bit RSA encryption by 2030?
18% chance
Will a fully error corrected quantum computer capable of running 100 million gates be created before 2030?
14% chance
Will IBM be the first to create a quantum computer with over 10,000 qubits?
50% chance
will i get a quantum computer in my lifetime?
42% chance
Will quantum computing be commonly used in commercial applications by 2030?
50% chance
© Manifold Markets, Inc.•Terms•Privacy