Share of US work hours assisted by AI in 2030? [LEAP] | Manifold

Share of US work hours assisted by AI in 2030? [LEAP]

5

1.1kṀ805

2030

4%

<5%

11%

5% - 10%

16%

10% - 15%

13%

15% - 20%

8%

20% - 25%

6%

25% - 30%

8%

30% - 35%

5%

35% - 40%

5%

40% - 45%

5%

45% - 50%

20%

Other

from Forecasting Research Institute (FRI)'s Longitudinal Expert AI Panel (LEAP)

The question (applied to the year 2030):

What percent of work hours in the U.S. at the following dates will be estimated as assisted by generative AI, according to a future iteration of the St. Louis Fed study or a similar study selected by an FRI-appointed expert panel?

More details about the question and resolution criteria here.

LEAP forecasts before Nov 2025:

Results. Experts predict that 4% of 2025 work hours in the U.S. will be assisted by generative AI,8 8% in 2027,9 and 18% in 2030.10 That’s 9 times our estimate for Sep 2024, 2%. The top 25% of experts believe that more than 30% of work hours will be assisted by generative AI in 2030 and the top decile of experts believe that more than 40% of work hours will be assisted by generative AI. Experts and superforecasts predict similarly, whereas the public predicts much less progress in the medium-term: 10% by 2030,11 almost half that of experts.

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