from Forecasting Research Institute (FRI)'s Longitudinal Expert AI Panel (LEAP)
The question (applied to the year 2027):
What percent of work hours in the U.S. at the following dates will be estimated as assisted by generative AI, according to a future iteration of the St. Louis Fed study or a similar study selected by an FRI-appointed expert panel?
More details about the question and resolution criteria here.
LEAP forecasts before Nov 2025:
Results. Experts predict that 4% of 2025 work hours in the U.S. will be assisted by generative AI,8 8% in 2027,9 and 18% in 2030.10 That’s 9 times our estimate for Sep 2024, 2%. The top 25% of experts believe that more than 30% of work hours will be assisted by generative AI in 2030 and the top decile of experts believe that more than 40% of work hours will be assisted by generative AI. Experts and superforecasts predict similarly, whereas the public predicts much less progress in the medium-term: 10% by 2030,11 almost half that of experts.
See also:
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