For Democrats to win a majority, they must successfully defend all current Democrat seats and flip all vulnerable Republican seats (North Carolina, Maine, and Ohio). They must further flip at least one of Texas, Iowa, or Nebraska. It’s not impossible but it is a very tall order.

Alaska could become competitive if Mary Peltola runs, but it is not an easy flip either. And flipping Nebraska is only possible if Dan Osborn decides to caucus with Democrats.

There are currently two Independent senators who caucus with the Democrats (Bernie Sanders and Angus King). How are you counting them?

Why do you have tie instead of just letting the VP break the tie....

@Riley12 I assume because it's asking about "majority" and not control? It's a little odd but seems like a fine way to write a market.