At 8:34 pm on September 30, 2005, in Newport News, Virginia, a physics undergrad at Christopher Newport University uploaded this drawing of a sleeping classmate to his newly created LiveJournal.
That undergrad was Randall Munroe, and that LiveJournal would grow into xkcd -- one of the most influential webcomics of the last two decades.
The 20th anniversary of xkcd is coming up this year. Will any xkcd comic that's published before the end of 2025 in Eastern Time reference xkcd's 20th anniversary?
Of note is that xkcd referenced its 10th anniversary with a comic in 2015.
I will not trade on this market, since what counts as a reference can be subjective. As of now, I would say any reference to "20 years" is sufficient, but not necessary. If Randall Munroe ceases to publish xkcd in 2025 without a 20th anniversary comic, this market resolves NO.
Update 2025-12-04 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator will no longer be available on Manifold to resolve this market. Someone else will need to make the judgment call on how this market resolves. As of December 4, 2025, no comic has yet referenced the anniversary.
1,000Unfortunately won't be around on Manifold anymore to resolve this, so someone else will have to make a judgment call on how this market resolves. By my reckoning there hasn't yet been a comic referencing the anniversary as of today, December 4.
@Calibrate I agree with your assessment, and despite not hosting the xkcd markets anymore, I’ve kept pretty good tabs on the comic itself