It's happening!

I must be reasonably confident that the Manifold account really is the entity they purport to be.

What if they don't purport it, but you're reasonably confident it's them anyway?

@chrisjbillington Well purport implies perhaps that at the very least the username or name is Nate Silver. I’m torn on whether or not I’d want to incentivize outing a private alt account. What do you think?

Edit: thought we were discussing my market. Carson can do whatever he wants with this one of course.

@Charlie I think there's a 54% chance it doesn't matter what I think :p

From the Manifold team’s meeting notes on Notion:

Seems like they’re aggressively pursuing him.

@oh OTOH the fact that they need to aggressively pursue him suggests he's not very interested.

Manifest has come and gone, and sadly Nate doesn't seem to have made an account.

@chrisjbillington He still has a few years, so the fact that he attended is still a YES signal (you're already treating it this way afaict, but worth noting).

Does anyone who was there know more about this?

Will it be a novelty, or will he catch the bug?

@JamesGrugett texted me that he’s coming to Manifest, and the website displays that as well. Hard to imagine he wouldn’t create a single market when there. https://www.manifestconference.net/speakers