Resolution Criteria:
This market resolves to YES if credible evidence emerges indicating that Luigi Mangione experienced erectile dysfunction (ED) directly or indirectly related to his back surgery. Credible evidence may include:
1. Statements or testimony from Mangione or his medical team.
2. Medical records, published interviews, or public disclosures confirming ED as a complication.
3. Verifiable sources detailing a causal relationship between his back surgery and ED.
The market resolves to NO if credible evidence emerges demonstrating that Mangione did not experience ED related to his back surgery, or if no evidence meeting the above criteria is available by the resolution date.
If the evidence is inconclusive or contradictory, the market resolves to N/A.
Market Description:
Luigi Mangione, known for his resilience in facing health challenges, underwent back surgery at some point in his life. Back surgeries, depending on the nature and location of the procedure, can occasionally result in complications like erectile dysfunction (ED) due to nerve damage or other factors. This market speculates on whether Mangione suffered from any degree of ED as a result of his surgery. Traders should consider the likelihood of this complication based on medical knowledge, Mangione’s public disclosures, or relevant expert opinions.
Update 2025-11-07 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Clarification to Criterion 1: Only the following will satisfy Criterion 1:
A statement by Luigi Mangione himself (video/verified interview)
A self-affirmed/self-written statement by Mangione
A treating medical professional affirming he experienced ED after his back surgery
The following do NOT satisfy Criterion 1:
Posts attributed to him describing groin/genital pain or numbness
References to an X-ray header image
Third-party remarks (e.g., a friend saying intimacy wasn't possible)
Update 2025-11-07 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Clarification to Criterion 2: Only the following will satisfy Criterion 2:
(a) Officially released medical records or court-filed exhibits naming Mangione that explicitly diagnose ED or document an ED prescription
(b) "Leaked" but verifiable records with a chain of custody
(c) Published, on-the-record interviews in reputable outlets where Mangione or a treating medical professional confirms ED as a post-surgery complication
Excluded from Criterion 2:
Summaries or hearsay about the "120 pages"
Unauthenticated PDFs
Anonymized pharmacy claims
Generic "intimacy issues"
Records that don't tie ED causally to the surgery and post-op window
Update 2025-11-07 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Clarification to Criterion 3: Only sources that establish causal sufficiency between the specific surgery/complication and ED will count. Acceptable proof:
(a) An on-record statement by a named treating clinician that his surgery/complication (e.g., confirmed injury to S2–S4 parasympathetic roots/cauda equina) necessarily caused ED, OR
(b) A peer-reviewed text/guideline stating that the exact complication he had results in ED in ~100% (near-inevitable) of cases, paired with verified evidence that he had that complication
Excluded from Criterion 3:
Generic "may/can cause" articles
Associations or risk factors
Speculation about prescriptions
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Clarification to Criterion 3: I will only count sources that establish causal sufficiency between the specific surgery/complication and ED and tie that mechanism to Mangione’s case. Acceptable proof is either (a) an on-record statement by a named treating clinician that his surgery/complication (e.g., confirmed injury to S2–S4 parasympathetic roots/cauda equina) necessarily caused ED, or (b) a peer-reviewed text/guideline stating that the exact complication he had results in ED in ~100% (near-inevitable) of cases, paired with verified evidence that he had that complication. Generic “may/can cause” articles, associations, risk factors, or speculation about prescriptions do not count.
Clarification to Criterion 2: I will only count medical documents of verifiable provenance (a) officially released medical records or court-filed exhibits naming Mangione that explicitly diagnose ED or document an ED prescription, and (b) “leaked” but verifiable with a chain of custody would count (c) published, on-the-record interviews in reputable outlets where Mangione or a treating medical professional confirms ED as a post-surgery complication. Excluded: summaries, hearsay about the “120 pages,” unauthenticated PDFs, anonymized pharmacy claims, generic “intimacy issues,” or records that don’t tie ED causally to the surgery and post-op window.
Clarification to Criterion 1: For this market, I will only count a statement by Luigi Mangione (video/verified interview), self-affirmed/self-written statement, or a treating medical professional affirming that he experienced erectile dysfunction after his back surgery. Posts attributed to him that describe groin/genital pain or numbness, references to an X-ray header image, or third-party remarks (e.g., a friend saying intimacy wasn’t possible) do not satisfy Criterion 1.
'I remember him telling me that, and my heart just breaks.'
Explaining the injury that Mangione had suffered after a back condition called spondylolisthesis was worsened by a surfing accident, Martin said: 'His spine was kind of misaligned.
'He said his lower vertebrae were almost like a half-inch off, and I think it pinched a nerve.'
Martin told CNN that Mangione, who he described as a bright engineer, suffered from debilitating pain throughout his six-month stay at SurfBreak during 2022.
He said a single surf lesson left Mangione 'in bed for a week' afterwards, adding: 'It was really traumatic and difficult, you know, when you’re in your early twenties and you can’t, you know, do some basic things.'
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-14177517/amp/luigi-mangione-injury-sex-brian-thompson.html
“He knew that dating and being physically intimate with his back condition wasn’t possible. I remember him telling me that, and my heart just breaks.”
