"No if no known child born by end of 2040"

Why not resolve N/A in this case?

@WilliamEhlhardt long term conditonals on things that are rare in the first place are tough. I've imagined it's more fun to know you'll get some result rather than NA after all that time. Open to discussion for future markets though!

@StrayClimb In my case, I bet a bunch on YES before catching this detail in the description, and I regret it. This is of course my mistake to deal with, but I imagine it's a common one.

If you're not going the N/A route, maybe change the title to "Aella will have a child, and the identity of the father will be a straight male"? This makes it clear that it's not a bet on the conditional probability but the joint one.

@WilliamEhlhardt I made the same mistake. This does feel like it borders on misrepresentation.

@DavidSpies So did I

I don't understand the reasoning for so much NO, simple statistics says this should be higher

(I've been assuming first child only)

arb vs https://manifold.markets/JonathanRay/will-aella-ever-have-a-baby

Will Aella carry a pregnancy to term before she turns 45?

45% chance.