T Coronae Borealis (T CrB), also known as the 'Blaze Star,' is a recurrent nova expected to undergo an outburst soon. Historically, it has brightened to magnitude 2.0 or 3.0 during such events in 1866 and 1946 respectively.
This market resolves to 'Yes' if T CrB reaches magnitude 5.0 or brighter before December 14, 2025 (11:59 pm ET), as reported by reputable astronomical sources such as the American Association of Variable Star Observers (AAVSO).
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Latest observations: @JussiVilleHeiskanen
https://apps.aavso.org/v2/data/search/photometry/?target=000-BBW-825
Uh oh. Not sure if this is genuinely bad or not for this market, but it isn't good.
"Recurrent nova T CrB refuses to explode. It has been stable and quiet for two full summers since NASA popularized the seemingly imminent' eruption. As northern winter approaches, the nova's home constellation, Corona Borealis, is difficult to see. On Dec. 1st we will temporarily discontinue daily monitoring to resume in Spring 2026 when it is easily visible again." (Spaceweather page)
@JussiVilleHeiskanen good catch! It looks like the constellation should still be observable from high north latitudes, I'll check AAVSO for observers in Canada.