Bitcoin price higher at end of 2027 than 2026?
5
1kṀ453
2027
62%
chance

Resolves based on CoinMarketCap prices, or an alternate similar source if not available.

Will resolve consistently with these markets:

/BoltonBailey/price-of-bitcoin-at-the-end-of-2026

/EvanDaniel/price-of-bitcoin-at-the-end-of-2027

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I have this idea of trying to make a multichoice market over a triangular lattice on the 2d space of price ratios for three assets, e.g.

  • 2026 BTC > 100,000 USD, 2027 BTC > 100,000 USD, 2027 BTC / 2026 BTC > 1

  • 2026 BTC > 100,000 USD, 2027 BTC > 100,000 USD, 2027 BTC / 2026 BTC < 1

  • 2026 BTC > 100,000 USD, 2027 BTC > 200,000 USD, 2027 BTC / 2026 BTC > 2

  • 2026 BTC > 100,000 USD, 2027 BTC > 200,000 USD, 2027 BTC / 2026 BTC < 2

  • 2026 BTC > 200,000 USD, 2027 BTC > 200,000 USD, 2027 BTC / 2026 BTC > 1

  • 2026 BTC > 200,000 USD, 2027 BTC > 200,000 USD, 2027 BTC / 2026 BTC < 1

...

If you had enough of these you could arb against multichoice markets on 2026 individually, 2027 individually, and the ratio.


But I feel like it would make too many alternatives for a human to really understand the lattice market.

@BoltonBailey I kinda want to do the same thing with my California housing markets. Still working on math to get my bot trading on that pile... But just keeping the market you described consistently arbitrated should be doable.

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