I have set the ending date to December 31st 2025, but if any of these events happen before then, this will resolve with the first event that occurs. I have added -” the war ends” to all answers that require the war to end as a condition of a winning resolution, whilst the other answers do not require the war to end as a winning resolution.
If you would like to read more info on current events…
As the war wages on there has been some movement between world leaders, especially America and the EU, along with Russia. But these talks do not conclude as Russia carries on its full demands. Trump has been threatening Putin with tariffs since his presidency, but always backs away essentially blaming Ukraine. It seems Trump is an ally of Putin, but is becoming more and more frustrated with Putin as he continues to be played by him which lessens his chance of the Nobel Peace Prize he has his heart set on.
Update 2025-08-30 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - Special case: If EU/NATO peacekeeping or a “coalition of the willing” enters Ukraine as part of a deal, or if a UN plan/security guarantee is implemented, resolution will be a 50/50 split across the relevant options.
Update 2025-11-18 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Other will resolve if the USA takes all restrictions off and gives devastating weapons to Ukraine, allowing them to fire at will.
Update 2025-11-22 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The 28-point plan would be considered a 'bad deal' for Ukraine for resolution purposes.
Update 2025-11-26 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): For resolution purposes regarding "America forces Ukraine into a bad deal" - the war ends:
Ceding territory to Russia would count as a bad deal
A ban from NATO accession would count as a bad deal
Most demands on the referenced list would count as a bad deal. “‘Minor amendments” would also count as a bad deal.
Minor changes to the 28-point peace plan would likely NOT count as triggering this resolution
Resolution will take into account how Ukrainians feel about the deal
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@MiaCat Thanks. It would be great to work together. I have family and friends in Ukraine so follow the news a lot. I would also like to clarify that the people of Ukraine would not give up hardly anything voluntarily so it would be Trump pushing them into it. Things like no NATO membership ever, ceasing territory, cutting their army etc. to be honest, the 28-point peace plan was a surrender plan 😔. But…you never know with Trump. We will have to see what happens and how not only politicians responds , but also the Ukrainians themselves.
@Lilemont Hi thanks for this. I would resolve anything that involves ceasing territory to russia, a ban from NATO accession and pretty much most of the things on that list of demands as “America forces Ukraine into a bad deal” - the war ends. I have family and friends in Ukraine who say that they would not accept anything on that list as it stands. “minor changes to the 28 point peace plan” is likely not to count. This market has to take into account how the Ukrainians feel about this too
@JussiVilleHeiskanen I have just put a bet on WW3 (along with my others). I have another question set up “will the war end next year” check that out if you are interested
@Gemc just to clarify one of the options, would you consider the 28-point plan a 'bad deal' for Ukraine?
@JussiVilleHeiskanen True, but whatever happens first will be the resolution. - for example, a ceasefire is held and lasts more than a month but peace talks continue - the ceasefire will be the resolution, as that happened first. A change in leadership, especially a change in the presidency/PM of an EU country may block aid to Ukraine and could force an end to the war by dividing Europe. Trump could force Zelenskyy into a bad deal by blocking weapons, if Trump goes the other way and tries to pressure Putin with crippling sanctions that they cannot sustain could force russia to give up demands (or the EU sanctions), are ways of ending the war, or there could be a settled agreement on land swaps satisfying both countries bringing the war to an end.
Then there are more drastic options which could significantly escalate the war, such as peacekeeping forces/the coalition of the willing entering Ukraine (Which are soldiers from NATO countries), another country officially joining the Ukrainian army actually to fight the Russians. These are red lines in Putin's mind.
If the EU peacekeeping/coalition of the willing enters Ukraine as part of any deal or if the UN comes up with some plan or security guarantee, this will result in a 50/50.
@Gemc Good clarification. I'll take a look at this market with fresh eyes and a better understanding of it.