Earlier this year, Split Ticket released their 2024 Wins Above Replacement (WAR) Model for the 2024 US Election. This model measures how well a candidate outperformed "controlling for seat partisanship, incumbency, demographics, and money", and is intended to be a barometer for candidate quality in Congressional races in both the House and the Senate. For this market, I will only consider incumbent candidates in 2026 (whether or not they win their race).
2024's worst performing incumbents were Senator Deb Fischer (R-NE) at D+17.7 and Representative Ilhan Omar (D:MN-05) at R+13.1. This question will be resolved to the single worst performing incumbent in all of Congress.
https://split-ticket.org/full-wins-above-replacement-war-database/
Update 2025-11-22 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Candidates who resign or do not run for reelection before the 2026 midterms are not eligible to resolve this market, as they would no longer be incumbent candidates in the 2026 race.
1,000@Kraalnaxx Since it's a dependent market no choice can resolve earlier than the entire market, but yes if she resigns before the midterms she would no longer be eligible to resolve yes in this market.