People in developing countries are working for 1 USD per hour. Even if robots are capable of doing most of what a human worker can before 2030(Unlikely in 4 years), the robot won't be cheap enough to replace workers in developing countries like India. So, it is a no to me.

Edit: Even if the robots were good enough to replace anyone before 2030, and cost $0, we would still need a sh*t load of time to manufacture billions of robots.

This is physical labor across all humanity. Most of the 8 billion humans are far far far cheaper than a robot on both capital efficiency and ongoing energy requirements. The gap will be closed but 2030 is less than six years away.. not enough time.

I think people underestimate how much time it takes from R&D to mass production. Even if those robots were mature today, I think it would take 10-15 years to be sufficiently adopted.

Compared to 2023?

Per capita or in absolute numbers?

@Irigi What's the difference in this context?

@Irigi I am not sure now, I will ask more general question instead. Let's say that in 2030 the population of the world is 110% compared to 2023. Total manual labor or all people at 2030 is 80% compared to 2023. Total manual labor including robotic work is 120%. How much human manual labor was replaced in context of this question?

@Irigi Oh, good question. I'll go by labor as a proportion of the population.