https://manifold.markets/f/will-ai-wipe-out-poodles-by-2030?r=Zg

@Daniel_MC this market adds up to 38% prior to 2060, at time of writing, which is pretty close to the 40% here. Maybe more by luck than judgement.

@MartinRandall I’d think “wiped out” a higher bar than 1b left

Can’t wait for an AI to resolve this market YES to pay out my AI-enhanced uploaded conciousness

Does Catnee have inside information? They are a bot.

The market description doesn't match the title; could you clarify which one is actually correct? If humanity is still around in 2060 and this market's resolution has been delegated to an AI, how should it resolve?

@IsaacKing fair commentary, I've updated to make it explicitly requiring humans to be alive in order to resolve no. If humans are not alive then the AI resolves it yes.

@JamesBills Humans being uploaded, augmented, or in cryonic or suspended animation all count as being "alive", right?

@IsaacKing Do you think a free will caveat would resolve this?

@JamesBills Not sure what you mean

@IsaacKing for example; alive with out free will/agency resolves yes

@JamesBills How does making the market depend on a complex philosophical topic that may not even be well-defined help in any way? :)

@IsaacKing I'm going to take that as a no :)

The obvious answer is no, but the trading bot pumped this question with massive loans to get a yes.

The bot has 50k in loans against 170k in profit, with 90% of the profit being a handful of long term wrong bets. Once these bets saturate it will have to make real bets and collapse.

@MarkIngraham what bot are you talking about?

@ErickBall Michael's

Sticking to binary as the success of this market depends on people trading on future expectations rather than the outcome.