Update 2025-12-05 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): No actual strike needs to occur - the market only requires that Trump announces (in person or on any forum) that there was a strike on a drug boat that had not previously been announced.
Update 2025-12-05 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The announcement must be made publicly by the deadline (December 12, 2025).
Update 2025-12-05 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): For an announcement to qualify as new, it must meet these parameters:
Not announced before December 6
The claimed date of the strike did not occur before December 1
Update 2025-12-05 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Announcements by Trump administration officials (such as @secwar or other officials) will count as announcements by Trump for resolution purposes.
Update 2025-12-05 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Trump's announcement does not need to describe a real event - if Trump announces a strike on a drug boat that never actually happened, it will still count for resolution purposes as long as the timing conditions are met (announced publicly by December 12, not announced before December 6, and the claimed strike date is not before December 1).
1,000People are also trading
https://x.com/Southcom and https://x.com/secwar are the most common sources for those announcements
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for other bettors
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@questionyourself I will count announcements by Trump admin as announcements by Trump. I will try to settle in good faith. @Quroe I will send M2 in case you bought no not thinking this was the case
@Porcupine I appreciate the tip, but the uncertainty was priced into my bet. I'll send it back. ๐
@Quroe no strike has to happen. The market only asks if Trump announces in person or on any forum that there was a strike on a drug boat that had not previously been announced
@questionyourself Correct response. Forget I said that.
I would certainly hope he doesn't announce future airstrikes. That would be an OPSEC mistake. That would never happen under the Trump regime.
What I asked was in regard to ordering a strike, keeping it secret past the market deadline, then saying it happened after the fact.
@questionyourself in case this was not answered before: if Trump says something that never happened it would be counted as an announcement, as long as it satisfies conditions in my other comments (timing, announced by date)