Resolves >5 if the contest is cancelled.
I will not be participating in the market.
Decline to participate means the country making it's own decision to not participate. Countries removed from the competition by EBU do not count. To clarify, should Israel for instance under advice decide to withdraw, that would count as one if not through official action by EBU.
Update 2025-12-04 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The baseline for counting countries that "decline to participate" is those countries who were going to participate at the time of market creation, but after creation decided not to.
This means the market is comparing against countries that were expected/announced to participate in Eurovision 2026 when this market was created, not against all 53 EBU-eligible countries.
Update 2025-12-05 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator has linked to the official Eurovision 2026 participants list (https://eurovisionworld.com/eurovision/2026/event#participants) as the baseline for determining which countries were expected to participate at market creation. Countries that withdraw from this list after market creation will count toward the resolution.
Update 2025-12-06 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator will use Wikipedia and the official Eurovision page as sources for determining which countries declined to participate.
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@JussiVilleHeiskanen what countries are counted in this amrket as potential participants? Andorra counts (not participated since 2009, but has the right to)? north Macedonia (last participated in 2022)?
@someoneR5c8l Yeah I feel this market wasn't well-researched. Every year there are way more than five countries who could participate in the ESC but don't. Morocco has even been boycotting it because of Israel's participation for decades.
@vee You are right. There are 53 countries eligible to participate, but every year more than five of them decide not to. Most Muslim countries (Libya, Morocco, Jordan, Egypt, Lebanon, etc.) do not participate. Apparently, it is illegal to broadcast Israeli content on their national TV channels, and therefore they cannot participate as long as Israel takes part.
When this market was created, in the context of withdrawal threats by several European countries, I implicitly understood that the comparison was against either the participants announced for the year or last year’s participants. If the comparison were instead made against the full 53 EBU members, then the “>5” option would have had a 99.99% chance of happening from day one.
This is the list of countries who could participate if they chose to (53):
Albania
Algeria
Andorra
Armenia
Austria
Azerbaijan
Belgium
Bosnia-Herzegovina
Bulgaria
Croatia
Cyprus
Czechia
Denmark
Egypt
Estonia
Finland
France
Georgia
Germany
Greece
Hungary
Iceland
Ireland
Italy
Jordan
Lebanon
Latvia
Libya
Lithuania
Luxembourg
Malta
Moldova
Monaco
Montenegro
Morocco
Netherlands
North Macedonia
Norway
Poland
Portugal
Romania
San Marino
Serbia
Slovakia
Slovenia
Spain
Sweeden
Switzerland
Tunisia
Türkye
Vaticane state
Ukrayne
UK
This is the list of participants in 2024 (37):
Albania, Armenia, Australia, Austria, Azerbaijan, Belgium, Croatia, Cyprus, Czechia, Denmark, Estonia, Finland, France, Georgia, Germany, Greece, Iceland, Ireland, Israel, Italy, Latvia, Lithuania, Luxembourg, Malta, Moldova, Netherlands, Norway, Poland, Portugal, Romania, San Marino, Serbia, Slovenia, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, Ukraine.
@MiguelLM I think you are right. It would have to be those who at the time of market creation were going to participate, but after creation decided not to.
@vee there is a learning curve to market creation, and clearly I may have been overambitious. For the record, I will bear no ill will if even after I try my best people give me a downgrade for falling short on the resolution.
@JussiVilleHeiskanen No worries, mistakes happen. To be honest, this was a hard one to catch. I was already familiar with the topic, and when I came across your market in September, I didn’t realize the ambiguity because I implicitly assumed—without explicitly seeing it in your market description—that you were not comparing against the full 53. If I had noticed earlier, I would have given you a heads-up.
@JussiVilleHeiskanen No worries, I was definitely planning to exploit this with the knowledge it might not work. And it worked in my favor though for a different reason :)
@vee I don't know what Armenia, Belgium, Georgia, Iceland will decide
2 or more of these 4 should withdraw to get to >5
This list will be used for resolution:
https://eurovisionworld.com/eurovision/2026/event#participants
@MiguelLM so only if both Armenia and Iceland will not participate the >5 option will win
@someoneR5c8l I’m not the market @creator
I simply shared the linked he posted when asking for clarifications
I have the same understanding as you: we need both Armenia and Iceland to get to 6