Will "The Problem with Defining an "AGI Ban" by Out..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?
4
1kṀ695
2027
20%
chance

As part of LessWrong's Annual Review, the community nominates, writes reviews, and votes on the most valuable posts. Posts are reviewable once they have been up for at least 12 months, and the 2025 Review resolves in February 2027.

This market will resolve to 100% if the post The Problem with Defining an "AGI Ban" by Outcome (a lawyer's take). is one of the top fifty posts of the 2025 Review, and 0% otherwise. The market was initialized to 14%.

LessWrong Annual Review
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How does this market start at 14%?

@NivlacM When you make markets via the API, you can choose a starting probability

@LessWrong neat!

@LessWrong I tried this, but I am getting

HTTPError: 400 Client Error: Bad Request for URL: https://api.manifold.markets/v0/market

Could you provide a code snippet or do you have an idea what might be the reason?

@4fa https://github.com/ForumMagnum/ForumMagnum/blob/master/packages/lesswrong/lib/collections/posts/annualReviewMarkets.ts#L126-L137

@LessWrong Thanks, I will adapt my code and will try again!

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