Resolution criteria

This market resolves YES if Trump's administration distributes cash payments to people funded by tariff revenues by the end of 2026. The payments must be direct cash transfers (checks, direct deposits, or equivalent) to individuals. If the administration instead provides the benefit through tax relief or other indirect mechanisms (such as tax cuts on tips, overtime, or Social Security), the market resolves NO. Resolution will be determined by official Treasury Department announcements or confirmed media reports of actual payments distributed.

Background

Trump promised in November 2025 that Americans could see payment checks funded by tariff revenues as soon as next year, with "hundreds of millions of dollars in tariff money" distributed as dividends by mid-2026. Trump has revived his proposal to provide a $2,000 payment to some U.S. taxpayers, framing it as a fair share of revenues generated by sweeping tariffs implemented since the start of his second term.

So far in fiscal year 2026, which began on October 1, the U.S. has collected $37.5 billion in tariff revenue. However, if checks were limited to those making $100,000 or less, this would mean checks going to an estimated 150 million Americans at a minimum cost of $300 billion.

Considerations

The dividends would require legislation, and it's not clear if Congress has the appetite. The Supreme Court is expected to rule within months on whether Trump exceeded his authority when he imposed sweeping tariffs by invoking national emergency powers, with both conservative and liberal justices appearing skeptical of his arguments. If the Court rules against him, the administration may have to refund billions in collected duties to importers.