Resolution criteria
This market resolves YES if Yann LeCun officially leaves Meta in 2025. Resolution will be confirmed through official Meta announcements, LeCun's public statements, or credible reporting from major tech news outlets (TechCrunch, Financial Times, Bloomberg, Reuters). The departure must occur by December 31, 2025. If LeCun remains at Meta through the end of 2025, the market resolves NO.
CLARIFICATION: This is a market for his actual departure date, not announcement.
CLARIFICATION: If he stays "through the end of the year" including Dec 31st but is not working at Meta on Jan 1st, 2026 then the market resolves YES.
Background
Yann LeCun, Meta's chief AI scientist, is planning to leave the company to build his own startup focused on world models. LeCun, a Turing Award winner, plans to leave in the coming months and is already in talks to raise capital for a startup. LeCun joined Facebook in December 2013 as the founding director of Fundamental AI Research (FAIR).
In June, Meta invested $14.3 billion in Scale AI and brought on its 28-year-old CEO Alexandr Wang to lead Meta Superintelligence Labs, shifting LeCun's reporting structure so he now reports to Wang. CEO Mark Zuckerberg has pivoted toward rapid deployment of large language models and AI products, particularly after Meta's Llama 4 model fell short of expectations.
Considerations
LeCun has publicly disagreed with Zuckerberg's heavy reliance on LLMs, calling them "useful but fundamentally limited" in their ability to reason and plan like humans. LeCun has said that world models, which aim to simulate cause-and-effect scenarios and predict outcomes, may take about a decade to mature. Multiple former employees told Fortune that FAIR has been "dying a slow death" as the company prioritized commercially focused AI teams over long-term research.
1,000People are also trading
Bayesian just resolved his N/A, I refer you to the controversy there.
https://manifold.markets/Bayesian/yann-lecun-out-of-meta-by-eoy-2025
Kalshi resolved theirs yes (but their criteria was about announcement, not leaving)
I'm a no holder here, and yes holder on Kalshi, because I think the way Kalshi's resolution terms are worded, this has already happened. If we hear nothing else for the rest of the year, I expect Kalshi to resolve to "yes" and this to resolve to "no" (and I think Kalshi is hoping for a clearer sign before then so that they don't have to resolve ambiguously).
Kalshi link for convenience:
https://kalshi.com/markets/kxleavemeta/who-will-leave-meta/kxleavemeta-25
@MikhailTal Yeah, exactly - I think Kalshi is based on "announcment" date, which I think has already happened; and here is based on departure date, which I'm willing to bet is in 2026.