Answers resolve YES once SpaceX confirms that a commercial payload* (that had been launched on a Starship) has been successfully deployed to orbit
Otherwise answers will resolve NO as their dates are reached (or may resolve NO early if sufficiently certain)
*A commercial payload is any satellite deployed from Starship that was paid for by an entity other than SpaceX - hence Starlink missions and other internal payloads do not count, and nor do payloads that remain within Starship (or Starship itself in cases like the Artemis HLS missions)
Resolves based on the time of deployment, not the time of launch
UTC is used
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Would unloading something on the Moon count as a deployment?
Does such an object have to be contractually specified to count? I am wondering if SpaceX send an Optimus with HLS demo to practice unloading a starship, does that count or only if contractually specified or some other requirement for it to count?
@ChristopherRandles unloading on the moon would not count as per:
"A commercial payload is any satellite deployed from Starship..."
(And also as per the market title)
Re whether it has to be contractually specified:
"A commercial payload is any satellite deployed from Starship that was paid for by an entity other than SpaceX"
Does that answer your questions?
@Nat I think you're right that it's practically certain to be NO, but resolving it early based on FAA filings rather than a SpaceX announcment feels like a (small) step too far.
Still, if mods can later undo a resolution (if it were needed), I bet most participants are happy to get their mana back sooner.
I don't mind, just feels a bit bold.
@DanHomerick oh, nevermind. This is for commercial payload, not test flight date.
Ignore me. That one already has many nines of certainly. Good call.
@DanHomerick I basically agree. I think I'd actually mildly object if the old loan system was in place. As is, I like this early resolve approach.
Related Metaculus question:
https://www.metaculus.com/questions/9611/date-of-a-customer-payload-on-starship/