How many naturalized US citizens will be denaturalized between February 1, 2025 and February 1, 2029?
11
1kṀ2319
2029
26%
100 or fewer
37%
101-1000
23%
1001-10,000
14%
More than 10,000

For context, as far as I can tell, even under the first Trump administration fewer than 100 denaturalization cases were even filed much less resulted in actual denaturalization. So the higher-numbered categories in this question would represent a very large increase.

Politics
Trump's Second Term
United States
Culture War
Get
Ṁ1,000
to start trading!
Sort by:

Today's excited utterances from the White House should probably move this market a bit.
Any maybe arbitrage a bit with this market https://manifold.markets/strutheo/will-trump-strip-usa-citizenship-fr-nP9PAzthIq

bought Ṁ100 NO

What’s your source for ‘actual’ denaturalizations? Apparently information about it completed cases is not easy to come by (may not be publicly available).

bought Ṁ250 NO

https://www.npr.org/2025/06/30/nx-s1-5445398/denaturalization-trump-immigration-enforcement

DOJ announces plans to prioritize cases to revoke citizenship
Denaturalization is a tactic heavily used during the McCarthy era and one that was expanded during the Obama administration and grew further during President Trump's first term. It's a tool usually used in only the most serious and rare of cases: dealing with Nazis or war criminals.

People are also trading

Will Americans lose the right to dual citizenship before 2029?
5% chance
Will over 1 million non-citizens be deported by the US in 2025?
9% chance
Will birthright citizenship stop being available in the USA before 2035?
15% chance
How many naturalized US citizens will get their citizenship revoked in 2026?
92
Will more than one million people be deported from the United States in 2025?
6% chance
How many people will be deported from the US under Alien Enemies Act authority in 2025?
Enemy-Combatant Detention of a U.S. Citizen by 31 Dec 2025?
48% chance
Will Trump strip USA citizenship from at least 100 citizens by the end of the year?
15% chance
US naturalized citizens have citizenship revoked in 2026?
98% chance
Will the US admit more than 2 million immigrants in any year before 2025?
2% chance
© Manifold Markets, Inc.•Terms•Privacy