If Kenya leads a military intervention in Haiti will democratic elections be held before 2028 | Manifold

If Kenya leads a military intervention in Haiti will democratic elections be held before 2028

6

174Ṁ139

2028

53%

chance

1H

6H

1D

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Conditional market. If Kenya does not lead a military intervention by 2026 this will resolve N/A

Sister market:

Update 2025-05-22 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator has stated that for this market, the distinction between a 'military intervention' by Kenya and 'sending policemen' is not meaningful. The current Kenyan intervention (e.g., related to sending policemen) will count as a 'military intervention'.

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AFAIK there was never any talk of a military intervention by Kenya; the country is still making up its mind about sending policemen to Haiti. Do you think the distinction is meaningful?

@BrunoParga distinction is not meaningful to me. Current Kenyan intervention counts. The market is on!

@NivlacM I hope you and it don't live in the same country...

@BrunoParga and I hope neither of our countries require foreign intervention to restore order

@NivlacM if mine does, I hope it's just policemen and not military.

People are also trading

Will Haiti hold an election before the end of 2025?

If the US leads a military intervention in Haiti will democratic elections be held before 2028?

Will Haiti hold an election before the end of 2026?

When will the next Haitian general election occur?

Will South Africa have another presidential election before 2029?

Will the U.S. have a free and fair presidential election in 2028?

Will a Democrat be elected president in 2028?

Will Madagascar have an election in the next 2 years?

Will the 2028 presidential election happen?

There will be a US presidential election in 2028.

Related questions

Will Haiti hold an election before the end of 2025?

If the US leads a military intervention in Haiti will democratic elections be held before 2028?

Will Haiti hold an election before the end of 2026?

When will the next Haitian general election occur?

Will South Africa have another presidential election before 2029?

Will the U.S. have a free and fair presidential election in 2028?

Will a Democrat be elected president in 2028?

Will Madagascar have an election in the next 2 years?

Will the 2028 presidential election happen?

There will be a US presidential election in 2028.

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