Will SpaceX reach $450B valuation in the next year?
15
100Ṁ1827
Dec 15
59%
chance
8

https://archive.is/cbWiA - "SpaceX Tender Offer Said to Value Company at Record $210 Billion"

https://www.cnbc.com/2024/12/11/spacex-valuation-surges-to-350-billion-as-company-buys-back-stock.html - "SpaceX valuation surges to $350 billion as company buys back stock"

Question resolves as YES if before December 12th 2025, there is a Bloomberg article that reports a SpaceX private tender sale, or post money VC investment valuation, or public valuation of more than $450B.

  • Update 2025-12-05 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): All qualifying valuations must be reported in a Bloomberg article, regardless of whether they are from an IPO, VC investment, or private sale. The "or public valuation" clause in the original description also requires a Bloomberg article to count.

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@MRME
"The details, discussed by SpaceX’s board of directors on Thursday at its Starbase hub in Texas, could change based on interest from insider sellers and buyers or other factors, said some of the people."

Not finalised yet would be my guess from that. Might not complete by year end?

@MRME this doesn't seem like a completed sale, nor a Bloomberg article

Though it does seem more and more likely that this market will resolve "yes"

The new valuation puts OpenAI ahead of SpaceX, which is reportedly valued at $456 billion, with other notable companies including ByteDance at $220 billion and Anthropic at $183 billion.
https://www.linkedin.com/posts/analytics-india-magazine_openai-has-reached-a-new-milestone-crossing-activity-7379779887311589376-52g4

@PeterBuyukliev
I am not clear on the "or public valuation of more than $450B", does that still have to be in Bloomberg article or does the 'or' make it a different separate case and what is needed for it to count as a public valuation?

@ChristopherRandles to clarify: there has to be a Bloomberg article on (ipo, or VC, or private sale)

Basically my thinking is that not any random rumour will get it's article; whilst if it happens for real, it will definitely get a Bloomberg article.

@PeterBuyukliev
Will this count?
https://forgeglobal.com/spacex_stock/
Forge price on 7 Nov 2025 $227.01
Forge Price valuation $429.48B

But on 6 Aug 2025 price was $250.21 so $429.48B/227.01*250.21 = $473.37B

Even if they don't get the upper stage of Starship reusable, it is already game-changing at this point from a $/kg to LEO perspective. It is going to take a while, but I think the rest of the world will soon realize the opportunity such lift capabilities offer and we will see much more tourism and space manufacturing (capitalizing on micro-g). For the record, the actual Mars stuff is a bit insane, but as a post-rationalist, having a crazy goal like that--to the extent it encourages innovation--is a good thing. The interest in the $350B valuation was very robust according to Musk (who doesn't lie), so I think this target is slightly more likely than not.

Closing date should be 1 December 2025 or later IMHO
(otherwise system will nag you and there is not a lot of time to trade)

@ChristopherRandles yep, thanks :)

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