📆What will happen in 2025? [Add Responses]
300
9.4kṀ160k
Dec 31
99.2%
T1 three-peat as League of Legends world champions
99%
This whole market gets more than 300 traders
99%
Los Ratones win against T1, or lose 2-3 (either case should resolve YES, if they don't play against each other this should be NO)
98.3%
Russia retains de facto control over Crimea
98%
Avatar: Fire and Ash released
96%
King Charles will be alive for the whole year of 2025
93%
FED rates will be below 4% on 31st December 2025
68%
Any incumbent world leader diagnosed with cancer after 28th January 2025
43%
Alan's Conservative Countdown to AGI >= 97%
20%
There will be less MAU at manifold in December 2025 then there would be in January 2025
19%
In one of the monthly polls, >= 80.0% of Manifold users who provide an opinion agree that weak AGI has been achieved
16%
Yoon Suk Yeol convicted of insurrection
10%
Saudi Arabia - Israel normalize relations
9%
At least one world leader (prime minister, president, or monarch) gets assassinated while in office
9%
Department of Education ended by executive order (even if temporarily)
9%
MKBHD marries his girlfriend Nikki Hair
8%
Ali Khamenei assassisnated
7%
Ukraine internal coup attempt
7%
Ali Khamenei dies a natural death
6%
Californian independence gains enough signatures

If any of these events were to happen before 1st January 2025, I will resolve that answer to N/A

  • Update 2025-27-01 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - US military conquest does not count as an event that would resolve the answer to YES

    • Greenland must join the USA voluntarily to resolve YES

  • Update 2025-27-01 (PST): - Resolution authority: NASA (AI summary of creator comment)

  • Update 2025-02-23 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Clear Death Confirmation Requirement

    • The outcome concerning King Charles will only be resolved if it is unequivocally confirmed that he is dead, not merely if there is temporary ambiguity or an apparent death.

  • Update 2025-02-24 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Children Eligibility Update:

    • Both past children and future children will be considered for the resolution criteria.

  • Update 2025-05-19 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): For the answer 'Peter Turkson elected Pope':

    • If a Pope other than Peter Turkson is elected during 2025, this specific answer will not automatically resolve to NO at that point.

    • Resolution to NO for this answer will be deferred as long as there is a possibility that the newly elected Pope could die and another papal election could occur before the market closes (end of 2025), offering Peter Turkson another chance to be elected.

  • Update 2025-07-02 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): For answers concerning a rebrand:

    • An event that 'technically counts' as a rebrand will be considered valid, even if it was not what the creator initially had in mind.

    • As an example, the change from HBO Max to Max was ruled as a valid rebrand.

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@PoliticalEconomyPK This one should be YES.

bought Ṁ237 YES

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=olS4OEviBLA

There are quite a few events that have occurred and which can be resolved.

@SteveSokolowski can you dm me?

Silksong released

bought Ṁ140 YES

@PoliticalEconomyPK Resolves YES - 8.8 magnitude earthquake in Russia https://earthquaketrack.com/quakes/2025-07-29-23-24-50-utc-8-8-20

bought Ṁ30 YES

@PoliticalEconomyPK does Max -> HBO Max count as rebranding? https://www.nytimes.com/2025/05/14/business/media/hbo-max-streaming-name.html

@Ruku this wasn't what I initially had in mind but it does technically count as a rebrand so I will resolve it now

bought Ṁ50 YES

@PoliticalEconomyPK I think this can resolve YES https://www.reuters.com/world/china/how-much-damage-have-israeli-strikes-caused-irans-nuclear-programme-2025-06-16/

@StevenK done

@PoliticalEconomyPK

https://abc7.com/post/small-nodule-found-joe-bidens-prostate-during-routine-exam-hospital-philadelphia/16401274/

bought Ṁ196 NO

@PoliticalEconomyPK this can resolve NO

@RedzoneITG what if the new pope dies? He might still get a chance to get elected. For this reason I will not resolve this, not now atleast

bought Ṁ75 NO

The odds of Turkson becoming Pope surely have to be below 2% now; they were 8% before the first conclave.

@SteveSokolowski resolve NO

(lol me with three comments)

(also lol me buying NO after the results are already out so i can get free mana)

You need to tag the market creator instead: @PoliticalEconomyPK

@TimothyJohnson5c16 Good to know, thank you!

@quietsnow resolved

@SteveSokolowski resolve NO

bought Ṁ60 NO

@SteveSokolowski resolve NO (the new pope is Leo XIV)

bought Ṁ2 YES

This: https://manifold.markets/RZacDQ/5-or-more-confirmed-violent-tornado

@Gameknight Can you clarify: Does this require Los Ratones to compete in Worlds, or just their roster to physically attend?

@RedzoneITG This requires LR to compete in Worlds. "To simply physically attend the event" is neither the original intent nor the common interpretation of the phrase.

bought Ṁ300 NO

@SteveSokolowski resolve no

@PoliticalEconomyPK I have edited this answer to fix an obvious typo. It's supposed to be GTA 6 not GTA 5

@PoliticalEconomyPK

@Purist

@RatUziCat

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