$5 Trillion company at the end of 2025?

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Dec 31

32%

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Will any publicly traded company have market cap exceeding $5 Trillion at the end of 2025? As determined by the closing price at the last trading day of the year.

Current four most valuable companies as of the creation of this market (January 7th, 2025):

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bought Ṁ2,000 YES

As of today: https://www.axios.com/2025/10/29/nvidia-5-trillion

bought Ṁ100 YES

@Shifbru watching the demo realized, what impressive feats made the investors wet their pants

Fyi ur title and description contradict each other.

Title: By the end = immediately resolves yes if at any point before the end of the year $5T is reached.

Description: At the end = Would resolve no even if $5t is reached if on the last day of the year the market cap is down.

@SirSalty Fixed. Thanks.

bought Ṁ30 NO

Interesting question! I think to push Nvidia up to this threshold someone really needs to demonstrate a model with much greater capabilities than what we've seen so far, and for investors to make the connection between that and the share price in their heads. Maybe something with o4 or gpt-5 will really look like a breakthrough before the end of the year?

So far o3 doesn't really appear to have made a huge impact on Nvidia stock. But maybe investors haven't connected the dots yet? Or perhaps they don't see this as being advantageous for Nvidia?

Guess the investors connected the dots

Might be closely related, it's hard to imagine an entirely new company going all the way to 5 trillion, and I'd be surprised if Apple, Microsoft, or Google could gain so much value so quickly, though it's not impossible. Just a very naive guess, though!