Will the United States pull out of the USMCA by the end of 2025?

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This question will resolve to yes if:

1) The United States gives written notice to withdraw under Article 34.6 on or before Dec. 31, 2025, or;

2) The United States imposes tariffs on either party (US or Mexico) such that the United States' average volume-adjusted tariff rate on either party exceeds 2% (the current US baseline industrial tariff). This figure will be calculated by applying the tariff rates effective Dec. 31, 2025 on the export profiles of Mexico and Canada for the calendar year 2024.

Update 2025-11-29 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): For determining if tariff rates exceed 2%, the Effective Tariff Rates model from Wharton Budget Model will be used as the primary source: https://budgetmodel.wharton.upenn.edu/issues/2025/11/24/effective-tariff-rates-and-revenues-updated-november-24-2025

The underlying data comes from the USITC data web (updated weekly). The most recent effective tariff rate published on or after Dec. 31, 2025 will be used for resolution.

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I believe @MiguelLM ’s interpretation is correct in light of the stated rules about effective tariff rates. The source that will be used is the Effective Tariff Rates model: https://budgetmodel.wharton.upenn.edu/issues/2025/11/24/effective-tariff-rates-and-revenues-updated-november-24-2025

The root source of this is the USITC data web, which is updated weekly. The most recent effective tariff rate published on or after Dec. 31 will be used to resolve the question, barring an actual withdrawal of the USMCA.

@Princeps thanks for the clarification about the source. Is this the chart you will use? The site is a bit messy, sorry for my questions. I could only find it until August.

The resolution criteria requires tariffs above 2% either in US or Mexico. As of today, it is higher than this for both countries. With different rates, it has been higher than 2% since (at least) April.

I understand we will have to check on December 31st the rates effective at this exact day.

US Tariff Tracker: Measuring “Effective Tariffs Rates” Around the World | Center For Global Development