Will a human walk on Mars before 2032?
34
1kṀ5658
2032
9%
chance

Resolves as YES if a human ventures onto the surface of Mars before January 1st 2032.

Questions with the same criteria:

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Mars orbit questions:

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To meet the criteria, the human must be awake for at least ten continuous minutes on the surface of Mars outside of a spacecraft. The human may be wearing a pressure suit or similar device. Furthermore, during this awake period, the human's heart rate must not drop below 30 beats per minute. The safe return of the human is not a necessary condition for the market to resolve to YES. If the human is in a state of suspended animation or asleep at the time of leaving the spacecraft to venture onto the Martian surface, they must be successfully resuscitated or woken up for at least 10 continuous minutes before returning to the spacecraft.

The human does not necessarily need to walk, and can use a wheelchair or some other form of mobility device to navigate the Martian surface. They must be outside of the spacecraft and with either their body or a pressure suit exposed to the Martian atmosphere (or vacuum if mars no longer possesses one on this date) in order to fulfill the criteria of this question. If the human is wearing a pressure suit, then the volume of the human must occupy at minimum 30% of the volume of the pressure suit in order for it to count as a pressure suit and not a spacecraft/vehicle. Either the human's body or pressure suit must make contact with the Martian surface. If the human exits the craft and enters a space underneath the Martian surface, such as a cavern or an underground base, then this does not qualify as venturing out onto the Martian surface. In the case that the human is outside of the spacecraft without a pressure suit, then they must survive on the Martian surface for at least 10 continuous minutes and remain awake with a heartrate of at least 30bpm during that time.

The human venturing onto the Martian surface must possess both a functioning brain and heart, with limited alterations. These vital organs may have undergone chemical, mechanical, or electronic modifications, provided that these enhancements do not significantly alter the organ's functioning compared to that of a typical human. Complete modification or replacement of any other organ in the human's body, including those enabling the human to survive on the surface of Mars without a pressure suit, is permissible within the context of this question. The human must also have a mass of less than 500kg (can be a cyborg but with some limits).

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Step 1: Get good at landing on the moon again, crashing doesn't count, may well be India.

Step 2: Land on the moon lots of times.

Step 3a: Build infrastructure on the moon, and probably do some space manufacturing in low earth orbit as well, set up human presence there and find out all the unexpected ways it makes people ill.

Step 3b: Solve genuinely sci-fi concepts like other types of propulsion, various nuclear rockets and the such are in the works, also using solar wind, there's also the using nukes to push yourself along concept that sounds nuts but might actually work.

Step 3c: Constant G forces are an issue if you want to get there in a sensible amount of time, maybe the crew could be put the crew in a controlled coma or something during the voyage. Physiological factors must be considered, see issues with early Antarctic bases for details. Muscle wasting, mucus membrane issues, and other space related issues are also an issue.

Step 3d: Send multiple more mars rovers, answer questions like is it very wet below the first layer of crust, is there microscopic life there, and get real readings on if lava caves provide enough shielding from nuclear radiation.

Step 3e: Do lots of experiments with astronauts on earth and the moon in sealed isolated environments to really dial things in.

Step 4a: People going to mars probably means them starting up a small colony, so work that colossal task out, just like with the moon landings everything needs multiple backups. For example maybe something happens automatically with one system, but if that doesn't work there's a 2nd different system, and if that doesn't work there's a manual approach everyone knows very well, and if that doesn't work there's a crowbar to pry something open and lots of redundancy in all components and spacesuits.

Step 4b: Work out how to manufacture a lot of what's needed from raw materials on mars, maybe try automated asteroid mining first.

Step 5: Actually go, like with various operations back in the days of the moon landings, it may well require a series of spacecraft all supporting each other rather than being a single launch.

Step 6: Manned space exploration unfortunately often involves failures and loss of life, it may well fail in an awful way, but we will still want to try again, it's hard to imagine this never working. I would think that it'll be much later this century before success, a lot of what we used to be able to do we now cannot, it's not all forward progress.

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