Which will be Manifold's largest revenue driver at the end of 2025?
159
130kṀ660k
Jan 1
35%
Mana purchases (or spread between sweeps purchase & redemption)
28%
Other
14%
Fees from subsidizing or promoting markets
4%
Selling data / API access / colocation
3%
House rake on games (e.g. poker)
3%
B2B income (e.g. setting up internal corporate markets)
3%
Interest on held cash
2%
Subscription plan
2%
Transactions fees from trades
2%
On-site advertising
1.4%
Sales of digital goods
1.4%
Job board / hiring program

At the start of 2026, I will look at our revenue sources for December 2025 and choose the most relevant answer in my estimation.

  • Update 2025-02-14 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Clarification Update:

    • Fees from promoting markets are to be categorized as ads.

    • On-site advertising is also categorized as ads.

  • Update 2025-04-04 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - Revenue Currency Clarification: Only USD revenue will be counted for resolution.

    • This means that any revenue not in USD (such as ad (boost) mana revenue) will be excluded.

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Please add escrow as a source of income

@SG Since it seems like there's going to be Manifold merchandise soon, can you add that here?

bought Ṁ250 YES

@TimothyJohnson5c16 All they have to do is post Manifest 2026 ticket presale on 1 December and bam, it will win.

@Eliza i'd just like them to announce the friggin date

this is in no way going to impact your decision @SG: but nothing to lose by saying it, so can it please be June 19-21??? 🥺

filled a Ṁ50 YES at 12% order

how much cash does manifold currently sit on, roughly?

@Luxeed not much...

Basically, if SG holds No shares in that option you have to believe this is a negligible item.

Mana sales dropped off a cliff with the sweepstakes sunsetting, and have not recovered yet.

Are ad (boost) mana revenue counted as revenue or does it have to be USD?

@ian That would be a CRAZY stretch in Manifold 2025.

@ian No, only USD revenue will be counted.

I don't think ads exist here

@ifechukwumunachiso this is true currently but the options in this market were selected by the site CEO so it’s reasonable to think that’s at least plausibly on the table

@ifechukwumunachiso Both "fees from...promoting markets" and "on-site advertising" are ads

bought Ṁ250 NO

this suddenly became a banger market imo. anything is on the table! come up with monetization ideas & save manifold!!

Based on the history this year, I expect mana sales to stay around $10k per month, and I would be surprised if promoting markets earns that much:
https://manifold.markets/stats

@TimothyJohnson5c16 @SG

How will this work though? Won't the massive amount of redemption of sweepstakes cash in February make Mana purchases net negative for the year?

@HillaryClinton The description says this is based just on December 2025, not the whole year. So Sweepcash won't exist anymore by then.

sold Ṁ2,734 YES

@TimothyJohnson5c16 As of today, the total mana sales in the last two weeks are just $255. My prediction that it would be steady at $10k per month seems badly wrong.

@TimothyJohnson5c16 mine as well 😢

So you like manifold meta markets? Well, have I got a treat for you! https://manifold.markets/CKLorentzen/what-will-be-the-topic-of-the-highe

bought Ṁ10,000 NO

We've removed transaction fees on the platform (for both mana and sweepcash)!

trading fees have been removed, so this seems unlikely at the moment

  1. How do you value mana on your balance sheet? 1000:1?

  2. Are you counting only Manifold's cut as revenue on Mana sales? (Added 20% on the 25k mana options, say). Or the whole thing?

What about miscellaneous investments using held cash, like that time Austin loaned money to Marcus' company? Does that get rolled into "Interest On Held Cash"?

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