Will WW3 have begun by 2028?
49
1kṀ2668
2028
17%
chance

This question will resolve as Yes if, at any time between January 14, 2024 (day of creation of the question) and January 1, 2028, there is a military conflict involving countries representing in totality at least 30% of world GDP in PPP or 50% of world population in any month in which the conflict is ongoing.

Thanks to @Jgalt for inspiration of operationalization. Suggestions of refinements are welcome.

Get
Ṁ1,000
to start trading!
Sort by:

North Korea + Iran + Syria + Russia + Belarus = one military bloc.

They are in an active war against Ukraine, which is a candidate for EU membership and has close relations with Europe. Ukraine is supported by almost all Western democratic countries with supplies and ammunition.

Currently, related wars or armed conflicts are taking place in Russia, Ukraine, Iran, Libya, Sudan, the Central African Republic, Myanmar, between North and South Korea, around Venezuela, in the Syria–Israel confrontation, and other regions around the globe, effectively making it a real World War III in both cyber warfare and on physical battlefields.

Shouldn't there be a clause that the two sides are evenly matched (at least within a order of magnitude)?

Several NATO countries participated in the US invasion of Afghanistan in 2001, and they probably added up to well over 30% of world GDP, but no one would call that a world war.

Some relevant info and thoughts:

  1. Market on Taiwan invasion: https://manifold.markets/MarlonK/will-china-attempt-to-invade-taiwan

  2. Noahpinion on the US capabilities (https://www.noahpinion.blog/p/were-not-ready-for-the-big-one) and on why China may want to shoot US bases if they invade (https://www.noahpinion.blog/p/why-i-think-an-invasion-of-taiwan)

  3. Some explainations on why the US & UK have decided to start shooting the Houthis in Yemen (https://asiatimes.com/2024/01/why-biden-finally-attacked-the-houthis/)

© Manifold Markets, Inc.TermsPrivacy