2025-26 NFL Season - Week Thirteen
*** Asterisk Prop Clarifications
At Least 4 Favored Teams Lose
Favorite based on DraftKings closing line
Any Double Digit Underdog Wins
Based on closing DraftKings lines
A Starting QB gets a likely Season Ending Injury
If consensus the next week is that the player will be out for the season
Will lean towards "YES" (i.e. if the vibe is the player is 75/25 I will resolve YES)
Based on my subjective opinion (but feel free to give input)
Fake Punt Attempt
If a team lines up in punt formation and then snaps the ball with the intention to gain the first down instead of punting
Quarterback gets benched in the middle of a game
The quarterback that started the game is removed due to neither an injury, nor due to a blowout
Subjective judgement will be used, but generally these fulfilling these three criteria will be required for 99% of cases
No Injury
If it is the 4th quarter then the game has to be within 16 points (2 possessions)
Its not clear that the QB removed from the game will start the next game
Any Double Digit Underdog Wins
Resolves NO if there are no Double Digit Underdogs
Fat Guy Touchdown
A player that would be considered fat scores a TD
All O-linemen, and DTs scoring would count (regardless of how)
Reserve the right for other positions if they are fat enough (if you want, ask me a player beforehand)
Highest Scoring Game of the Season (so far)
Resolves at 50% for ties, weighted (so if there are two games tied for the top already, and this week adds another, it would resolve at 33%)
A 4th and 11+ is converted
First downs as the result of penalties do not count
This logic applies similar to any other prop like this
"(no plays)" in the box score do not count as a play
Top 5 Super Bowl favorites
If there is a tie for 5th (or like 4-6th), this will resolve at 50%
Will a championship belt change teams?
There are unique 3 Championship Belts currently in play
In general, lines that use betting lines or props will rely on the DraftKings odds
Add your own props! Answers should be able to be resolved by about a Week after this Week's game slate completes!
All Weeks:
Update 2025-12-02 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): A prime number of total missed field goals + extra points: If a kicker never actually kicks the ball (e.g., stumbles before contact), it is not recorded as a kick and will not count toward the total of missed field goals + extra points.
Update 2025-12-02 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): For props involving touchdowns "scored by" a player: Only the player who crosses the goal line with the ball scores the touchdown. A quarterback throwing a TD pass does not count as the QB scoring the touchdown - only rushing/receiving TDs by that player count.
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@SolarFlare My understanding from discussing this with @StopPunting is that a QB throwing a TD doesn't count as scoring it for purposes of the prop. If the QB runs it in, etc. it counts but not a thrown TD.
@Mochi copy FYI.
https://manifold.markets/StopPunting/nfl-week-2-prop-bets#jzn7qkc1ogj
@MRME I don’t see this clarification anywhere in this question resolution criteria or description though. I haven’t followed NFL props market long enough to see your previous discussion with StopPunting to just assume this does not include passing TD, I imagine I speak for SolarFlare on this as well. And why do some questions clearly specify (including passing TD) or (not passing TD) but not this one. I spent like half an hour looking past discussions to understand whether this was discussed, but didn’t look back far enough to see your linked comment. Kinda unfair for new traders if this resolves based on a comment from 11 weekdays ago.
@StopPunting I agree with Mochi on this. I think resolving N/A is the cleanest solution and would appreciate if you could add that clarification to future weekly markets.
@MRME I m not okay with resolving NO and losing mana by missing a comment clarification from 11 weeks ago. These markets are independent, if this question excludes passing TD, then it should be specified in this question, not by quoting a comment from a different market. And in this case I wagered mana without prior knowledge from a different market, so this profit would not have existed for you had the clarification been presented in this specific market.
@Mochi the question says "scored by" I should have updated to clarify better as I did before but it's precedent generally that TDs are scored by whoever crosses the line, not two people.
I'm resolving NO, but I'll send you your funds you put in back due to the misunderstanding, effectively N/Aing it for you
@StopPunting Does Younghoe Koo's stumble on Monday Night Football count? He never touched the ball, so it's officially a loss of 13 yards for a turnover on downs rather than a missed field goal.
If he never kicked the ball, it's recorded as a fumble not a kick so would not count
@StopPunting Ernest Jones IV has two interceptions for the Seahawks against the Vikings.
If I'm not mistaken, the first 4 games of the week were all upsets.