Alireza reached 2800 rating in 2021 as the youngest player ever and he was ranked #2. But since then he had been struggling and dropped as low as 2737 after Candidates. Recently he gained some points back and is currently at 2745 in live ratings (rank 13). At this moment he would need to gain 22 points to reach top 5, but that can change. Can he bounce back and get up to top 5 before the end of 2025 (1.5 years)?
Resolves YES if Alireza is rated top 5 in classical chess on any official FIDE rating list before 2026 (last one is the rating list for December 2025).
Alireza's FIDE page: https://ratings.fide.com/profile/12573981
Update 2025-11-26 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The last rating list that counts is the one that covers December 2025 (which will be released in January 2026), not the one released at the start of December 2025.
1,000People are also trading
@Weezing For this market, is the last rating that counts the one that comes out at the start of December?
@LuisPedroCoelho No, the last one that counts is the one that covers december 25. That one will be released in january probably.
@Weezing thanks for clarifying. The ambiguity comes from the fact that FIDE calls the list that comes out next week the December 2025 list
Alireza jumped to #6 on the last ratings list after a strong FIDE Grand Swiss, but he's at #8 now on the live ratings now with both Giri and Keymer having overtaken him (although Giri is basically tied).
He's not playing the FIDE World Cup either, so it seems that his best hope to making it to #5 is to have the 3 people currently ahead of him lose rating points.