Will Trump & Elon cut >250,000 government employees in 2025?
1.5k
10kṀ2.2m
Dec 31
10%
chance

Linked to this Kalshi question:

If there are more than 250000 federal employees no longer working relative to the January 2025 employee count before Jan 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. Outcome verified from FRED.

Note the resolution criteria—what matters is the change in the count of federal employees, not whether we can confirm Trump and/or Elon directly fired them. For reference, the specific chart Kalshi links to appears to be this one.

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how you managed to have 7 tags?

@questionyourself question likely predates the limit

Will they cut them using scissors or another cold weapon?
Please avoid anything like jigsaws: there are children here.

Trust Trump get Fump

I was broke when I bought in knowing nothing ever happens, now the market has caught up to my insight so I only make 50 mana profit. Shame.

@OKanon You should take loans

bought Ṁ200 YES

Let’s go USA, Maddy needs a new pair of boots. 💴

bought Ṁ200 YES

What if they fired and then rehired again in the meantime? Does it count even if they have been replaced?

@MindBenderMads no the only thing that matters is the difference in total numbers

@MindBenderMads

If there are more than 250000 federal employees no longer working relative to the January 2025 employee count before Jan 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. Outcome verified from FRED.

opened a Ṁ250 YES at 5% order

if all is rationale in the world i will make mana on a 10% buy becore year's end. cause this is wayyyyy too low, fellas

@No_uh if all is rational in the world, there’s at least 10% chance you’ll make a toooon of mana at year’s end, no need for the market to be similarly rational!

@Ziddletwix lol

the year end im cashing in across the whole site 🧠 my whole brand of oracle is on the annual clock not the monthly

(disclaimer: this poster is known to huff mass copium)

My limit order just got filled at 3%? What are you guys doing?

@bens he sold

@MachiNi DRP employees still on until October numbers come out next month 🤷‍♂️

@bens I mean Data Chef sold

At long last, September job numbers are released. Federal employment at 2,918k. January was 3,015, so the total decline has been 97k. This is the 2/3 mark. Linear extrapolation to a year is about 146k.

@jb456 they seem to have updated the August numbers upward, no? 2918 was the previous number.

@MachiNi Interesting. Didn't notice that, but yeah the Aug number now slightly up. I guess it has been two months after the initial release of the Aug numbers, so they were due for adjustment... hard to know how all of this works in these chaotic times!!!

sigh

@bens Buy low?

jobs report out thursday (source)

The first economic data report that went unreleased due to the government shutdown will be released next week, the Bureau of Labor Statistics said Friday. […]

The first such report, on September nonfarm payrolls, will come out Thursday at 8:30 a.m.

@brod basically they fired and rehired, otherwise there is not other explanation

Remind me because I’m dense and can’t scroll through all the comments: assuming they release data on December 5, would that be the last data point or would we wait until the January release?

EDIT: nvm, I found the comment. It would be worth pinning or adding to the description. The January release (of the December data) is the last data point.

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