
Linked to this Kalshi question:
If there are more than 250000 federal employees no longer working relative to the January 2025 employee count before Jan 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. Outcome verified from FRED.
Note the resolution criteria—what matters is the change in the count of federal employees, not whether we can confirm Trump and/or Elon directly fired them. For reference, the specific chart Kalshi links to appears to be this one.
People are also trading
If there are more than 250000 federal employees no longer working relative to the January 2025 employee count before Jan 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. Outcome verified from FRED.
@No_uh if all is rational in the world, there’s at least 10% chance you’ll make a toooon of mana at year’s end, no need for the market to be similarly rational!
@Ziddletwix lol
the year end im cashing in across the whole site 🧠 my whole brand of oracle is on the annual clock not the monthly
(disclaimer: this poster is known to huff mass copium)
At long last, September job numbers are released. Federal employment at 2,918k. January was 3,015, so the total decline has been 97k. This is the 2/3 mark. Linear extrapolation to a year is about 146k.
@MachiNi Interesting. Didn't notice that, but yeah the Aug number now slightly up. I guess it has been two months after the initial release of the Aug numbers, so they were due for adjustment... hard to know how all of this works in these chaotic times!!!
jobs report out thursday (source)
The first economic data report that went unreleased due to the government shutdown will be released next week, the Bureau of Labor Statistics said Friday. […]
The first such report, on September nonfarm payrolls, will come out Thursday at 8:30 a.m.
Remind me because I’m dense and can’t scroll through all the comments: assuming they release data on December 5, would that be the last data point or would we wait until the January release?
EDIT: nvm, I found the comment. It would be worth pinning or adding to the description. The January release (of the December data) is the last data point.