This market will be resolved based on two main criteria by January 1, 2035:

1. FDA Approval: A new drug must receive official approval from the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) specifically for the treatment of Alzheimer's disease. Approval means the FDA has evaluated the drug's safety and efficacy through the required clinical trial phases.

2. Effectiveness: The approved drug must demonstrate the ability to slow the yearly progression of Alzheimer's disease by at least 50% compared to the standard of care. This reduction will be measured using standardized clinical assessments, such as cognitive function tests and daily living activity evaluations, compared to the progression rates observed with existing treatments. The question resolves as yes even if the effect is limited to patients with early AD. It doesn't need to totally cure the disease to resolve as yes.

If both criteria are met by the specified date, the outcome is "Yes." If either criterion is not met, the outcome is "No."

• Update 2025-11-25 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Comparison baseline clarified: The 50% slowdown should be measured vs placebo, not vs standard of care (like donepezil or amyloid antibodies).

Already-approved drugs: If a drug was already FDA approved and a later trial shows 50% slowdown vs placebo, this still resolves YES.