Maybe arbitrage with this one, very different numbers:

https://manifold.markets/zax/how-many-justices-will-vote-that-tr-LII6Z2slhd

https://www.iowaattorneygeneral.gov/media/cms/SCOTUS_Cert_Amicus__Birthright___Fi_98753795C9109.pdf

Interesting read. The reasoning around "domicile" looks potentially convincing but I don't know much about the topic.

I do see it's already been shot down by a lower court. Awaiting appeals

What's the resolution if a lower court declares it unconstitutional and the supreme court declines to hear the case, letting the lower court ruling stand?

@CoreyLLanum this is a tough one, but I think this would resolve as YES

@jade on the other hand, it clearly does not fit the market title and should resolve NO

@BlackCrusade At this point, I am hesitant to reverse this , as it has been set for ~7 months, and some trades may rely on it

Oh, the comment wasn't deleted, manifold is just a bit buggy. Nevertheless, I did mean to reply to that!

@Reddealer you seem to have deleted your comment, but I think because the title is very specific, I will resolve yes on a supreme court decision overturning it.

If it's shot down by a lower court, I will have to wait if there is possibility of an appeal.
If the trump admin themselves declare a reversal of the policy, this will resolve NO

@jade thanks for clarifying, yeah I think based on the title I hear you.

It’s very common that constitutional questions are resolved without reaching the Supreme Court, so I think I won’t participate in this one.

What about other ways the EO could be overturned? Like lower court ruling, the Supreme Court could decline to hear the case. Or Trump admin could withdraw the EO somehow? How would those scenarios resolve?

It is blatantly unconstitutional and trumps aponites have ruled against him before

@DavidOman I agree the odds are in favor of them considering it unconstitutional just not by that high a percentage

Sorry

will avoid betting my own market, but for the record, my prediction is "yes"