I have access to Claude Pro, ChatGPT Plus, and Google AI Pro.
In my experience, ChatGPT 5.1 Thinking is currently unmatched for the class of technical problems I ask on a regular basis. For less mathematically complex problems I often prefer Claude. I use Gemini much less often, roughly once every two weeks. I have an iPhone and use MacOS computers.
I will try out Gemini 3. Assuming Gemini 3 is released by December 23rd, I will add https://gemini.google.com/ to the "Essentials" in my default browser and remove other AI tools from such easy-to-access locations so Gemini is the lowest friction option. I'll leave things this way for a week, and after that I'll do whatever is most convenient for me.
What counts as regularly will be based on my personal judgment, but a ballpark on what might count is five new chats per week.
If after the week long trial period I continue to use Gemini regularly this market resolves YES. Otherwise it resolves NO. If Gemini 3 is not released by December 23rd this market resolves N/A.
I will not bet in this market.
Update 2025-12-03 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator will wait until December 31st before resolving the market, rather than resolving immediately after the one-week trial period mentioned in the original description.
1,000@traders I will be waiting until December 31st before resolving... Opus 4.5 release has meant I use Gemini a lot less than I did in the week following the Gemini 3 release. But I also have not been doing as much of the tasks I tend to prefer Gemini for and I will be doing them more going forward.
I am so far finding Gemini 3 very smart but annoyingly sycophantic, constantly saying things like "This is a subtle but brilliant distinction you are making." etc.
I am adding this to my "Instructions for Gemini":
> Never praise me unless I specifically ask for it. E.g. if I say "Is this good" you can respond with your honest opinion. But if your judgement is unsolicited, you can give constructive criticism but never affirmation or praise such as "This is a subtle but brilliant distinction you are making."