Resolves 'YES' if Vance issues written declaration to Congress that Trump is unable to discharge the powers and duties of his office, as described in Section 4 of the Twenty-fifth Amendment. Resolves 'YES' immediately upon such a declaration, even if Trump is only temporarily divested of authority.
Would also resolve 'YES' if Trump voluntarily transfers presidential authority to Vance, as described in Section 3 of the Twenty-fifth Amendment, IF AND ONLY IF Vance assumes presidential authority for a continuous duration in excess of one week (7 days).
Resolves 'N/A' if Trump is not elected President in 2024.
See also: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Twenty-fifth_Amendment_to_the_United_States_Constitution
2024-11-21: Edited title "If Trump wins the 2024 election, will the 25th Amendment be invoked as to transfer presidential authority?" -> "Will the 25th Amendment be invoked as to transfer presidential authority from Trump?"
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@jack That one specifies that the section 3 incapacity does not count. One might argue that DJT is unlikely to voluntarily sign off on his power even for a week, but personally I think the other market is underpriced currently (a year on from your comment). Though I also hasten to add that we now know more about his health. I can't say what I would have thought a year ago.
@JussiVilleHeiskanen the likelihood of section 3 for a minimum of a week is very low. It has never happened in history. (Same is true of section 4)
jk