Resolves to YES if the May 2025 edition of the US BLS statistics indicates the sum of employement in the following categories has declined by at least 5% from the May 2023 numbers:
Writers and Authors (includes copywriters for advertising etc, as well as authors and screenwriters)
May 2023 numbers are forthcoming.
Background: there's a perception that generative AI will replace creative workers, and therefore demand for workers like graphic designers and writers will fall dramatically. There's also a 5 year version of this market.
1,000People are also trading
Update, 2023 and 2024 numbers have been published:
2023 XLSX - https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm23nat.zip
2024 XLSX - https://www.bls.gov/oes/special-requests/oesm24nat.zip
Per-Occupation Changes
15-1255 Web & Digital Interface Designers
2023: 111060
2024: 111400
Absolute change: +340
Percent change: +0.31%27-1024 Graphic Designers
2023: 212720
2024: 214260
Absolute change: +1540
Percent change: +0.72%27-1025 Interior Designers
2023: 67760
2024: 69580
Absolute change: +1820
Percent change: +2.69%27-3043 Writers & Authors
2023: 49450
2024: 47800
Absolute change: –1650
Percent change: –3.34%
Overall
2023 total: 440990
2024 total: 443040
Absolute change: +2050
Percent change: +0.46%
Based on published schedule and edit dates, there's typically an 11 month lag on OEWS data.
https://www.bls.gov/schedule/2024/home.htm
"Wednesday, April 3, 2024
10:00 AM
Occupational Employment and Wages for Annual 2023"
May 2021 levels of employment for these jobs in 2025 would resolve YES. (Hypothetical uniform 5% drop included for reference)
@jellyberg sorry I’ve realised I set the resolve date too soon - the date of the 2025 release of the numbers will be 2026. We’ll get 2024’s numbers in April-ish 2025.