Disclaimer: this is naturally quite a subjective question - I am happy to clarify anything.
This question resolves to "Yes" if Pete Hegseth has another major gaffe before 2026. Otherwise it will resolve to "No".
If there is no apparent gaffe and Pete Hegseth ceases to be Secretary of Defence - or changes role within the Trump Administration - this question will resolve to "Yes" if Trump, or a consensus of credible reports, attributes this to something like Signalgate (i.e., a major gaffe).
Credible reports must include sources from within the White House, Trump's inner circle etc. Opinion pieces and purely speculative articles will not suffice.
The gaffe must share similar traits to "Signalgate" including, but not limited to:
It should be widely reported.
The gaffe should breach laws and/or strict protocols / norms.
It should result in bipartisan calls for his resignation and / or investigations.
In other words, the gaffe must ultimately be something that would seriously impact his tenability as Secretary of Defence.
Some events (non-exhaustive!) which would be sufficient to resolve to "Yes":
Trump publicly disparaging Hegseth.
Another "Signalgate" (i.e., leaking of highly sensitive/classified plans, discussions and/or documents).
Mishandling of highly sensitive/classified government documents (e.g., United States of America v. Donald J. Trump, Waltine Nauta, and Carlos De Oliveira)
Hegseth appearing inebriated in public, or a consensus of credible reports reporting that he has done so.
Hesgeth arrested for any reason.
A consensus of credible reports stating that Hesgeth lied about a part of his military record or career.
A diplomatic fallout with another country which is wholly or partially attributed to Hegseth.
Ongoing or previous extramarital affairs whilst in the capacity as Secretary of Defence.
Again: the gaffe must ultimately be something that would seriously impact his tenability as Secretary of Defence.
Some events (non-exhaustive!) which won't count:
Slips, trips and falls.
Mumbles, fumbles and stutters (i.e., speeches, interviews, conversations gone awry).
Legal financial troubles. (e.g., loses large amount of money from a stock).
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@CraigDemel I agree and think that if Hegseth did in fact commit a war crime that counts but I am uncertain if he did or not as of the time of this writing.
@CraigDemel sure, but they can read two text samples and decide if one sample satisfies the qualifications in another. At this point truth doesn't matter, it's going to be the creators opinion. This is close enough either way.
I was NO, but I think the reporting on the warcrime satisfies the spirit of the market.
@CraigDemel Requiring it to be "something that would seriously impact his tenability as Secretary of Defence" seems to me to make it quite clear that it should not.