Completes full term
Trump remains President and alive through January 20, 2029, and peacefully transfers power on that date as required by the Constitution.
Staying in office beyond January 20, 2029 for any reason will not count as completing a full term.
Does not complete term
Trump leaves office before January 20, 2029 by resignation, impeachment, 25th Amendment process, legal action, incapacity, voluntary hand-over, exile, coup, or any other non-fatal removal, and remains alive.
If Trump is still claiming presidential authority after Jan 20, 2029, thus not ‘completing’ his term, the market will resolve to this option.
Dies of natural causes or illness
Trump dies from disease, aging, or any internal medical cause while serving as President.
Dies from assassination or external violence
Trump dies as a result of assassination, attack, or any external act of violence while serving as President.
Resolution Notes:
Outcome determined by official announcements and consensus from major news outlets.
“Completes full term” requires Trump to leave office on January 20, 2029.
“Does not complete term” includes any non-fatal early departure.
“Natural causes or illness” = any internal medical cause (includes accidents not provably violent).
“Assassination or external violence” = any fatal external attack (includes e.g. air crashes provably caused by hostile intent).
This market is for predictive purposes only and does not advocate or endorse any outcome.
Update 2025-07-14 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator has clarified that to resolve as Completes full term, Trump must remain President through January 20, 2029. Leaving office before this date will not count.
Update 2025-11-30 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator has clarified potential 'Other' resolution cases:
Suicide
Government collapse
Disappearance without removal
Coma/incapacity without removal
Indeterminate cause of death
Major constitutional changes to term length or limits (would be discussed with holders)
1,000People are also trading
@Eliza I tried to structure the market so that it shouldn’t resolve ‘Other’ … but some edge cases might include:
Suicide.
Government collapse.
Disappearance without removal.
Coma/incapacity without removal.
Indeterminate cause of death.
If there are major constitutional changes to term length or limits, I would discuss with holders whether to resolve 'Other' or adjust market length.