This market is consistently trading above /MikhailTal/us-military-action-again-venezuela which makes little sense.

@MachiNi This market can resolve YES if a military conflict occurs OUTSIDE of Venezuelan territory. The other one cannot. So this one should be strictly higher

@CornCasting Actually as has been pointed out to me further down. The other market can resolve YES if Special Forces are used that assassinate Maduro but no airstrikes occur. This one requires that airstrikes be involved.

I like markets with a clear end date: your stock grows every day slightly.

As fewer days remain, the something happen have fewer chances.

@Dulaman it becomes smaller with every second, but my stock does the opposite

@AlvaLindqvist Can I introduce you to literally the entire Jimmy Carter chapter of Manifold history?

@Quroe best comeback of all time

@Quroe never heard of him

@AlvaLindqvist There was a period of Manifold circa 2023-2024 when we were all (maybe unhealthily) obsessed with when 39th President of the US, Jimmy Carter, would die.

Many markets were asking if he would live to see 2025. Many were near 100%.

Then he died on Dec 29, 2024. Much mana changed hands that day. So much so that I think the site slowed down considerably when the news broke, if I recall correctly.

@AlvaLindqvist I'm Jimmy Carter

Bettors on a war with Venezuela are actually betting on whether news headlines will appear, like: 'US Forces Struck a School and a Church in Southern Venezuela During a Sunday Wedding.'"

@1bets the resulting criteria do not in fact require this

@AlexanderTheGreater without strikes - resolution is NO

@1bets A strike on Venezuelan military outside of Venezuelan territory could also result in a YES. A Special Forces Operation that only kills Maduro and nobody else would also lead to this market resolving YES and would likely be a huge political win for Trump.

@CornCasting where in the acceptance criteria do you see that a special forces operation to kill Maduro but nobody else dies resolves YES?

@AlexanderTheGreater they assume attack by Palantir drone, not a physical human ..

But those kill drones are useless in Venezuela

@AlexanderTheGreater I stand corrected. You are quite right. It says it has to be an airstrike.

on Poly it is @tsybka - he bought YES, and will sell later

Alright, what the heck am I missing in the news for this downward spike?

Is it this? https://www.reuters.com/world/us/us-lawmakers-want-war-powers-vote-after-trump-pledges-venezuela-attack-soon-2025-12-03/

@Quroe might some take this as a reason to create facts on the ground quickly before the vote comes out against it?

@Quroe There is no news, poly has not had similar movement, it's just some guy buying a ton of NO

@AlexanderTheGreater If you meant "boots on the ground," that's what I'm thinking too.

I've mostly been market making and providing liquidity, but I'm just stumped right now by how aggressive this market is dipping.

@Quroe I have a "boots on the ground" market here that only resolves Y/N conditional on this market resolving Y:

https://manifold.markets/CornCasting/us-troops-on-venezuelan-soil-before

@Quroe not necessarily "boots on the ground". I don't think that will happen. The right is too burned out on that (even though it was the right that dragged us into Iraq). But once a military operation is fully under way, it becomes harder to back out.

@AlexanderTheGreater I'm trying to parse what you mean by this:

...facts on the ground...

@Quroe don't take "ground" literally. Missiles hitting Venezuelan airbases would be facts on the ground. Venezuela striking back at US Navy vessels would be facts on the ground. Anything taking place at the scene is in essence "facts on the ground" that Congress will have to consider when voting.

@AlexanderTheGreater Oh! Alright, I learned a new term today!

@Quroe you have offered loans to buy NO, why not?

@pureprofit You have reached out to me in DMs, but you have not made any indication that you accepted or wanted to negotiate the terms I laid out.

@pureprofit Oh, wait, that was a different user. My bad.

@pureprofit Reach out to me in DMs if you'd like a loan.

@AlexanderTheGreater U.S. servicemembers in Venezuela are a serious concern in the Senate, because sending ground troops without congressional approval would be an illegal intervention that cannot be decided by the President alone.

Without ground troops, any strikes on Venezuelan soil will likely end up in international courts, as no real evidence of drug activity will be proven, and Venezuela will argue the opposite.

@Quroe Quroe - 25% is ok

@pureprofit with any other administration I'd see that as a real concern. With the current administration it's just words.

@AlexanderTheGreater If a President orders something illegal... look at Bolsonaro as an example (27 years in prison).

I am about US troops in Venezuela without approval.

Only strikes on military arsenals might be possible, but they need to somehow link that to drug trafficking

It is very hard to hold the US accountable to international law, and if we are de facto at war with Venezuela, Congress will be under a lot of pressure to either approve it or at least drop any kind of dissent.

@moobunny If American lifes are involved, and finacial part is unclear, there is no way for US ground troops to ever appear in Venezuela

@1bets Trump already is a felon. He now also has immunity for official acts. Nothing matters.

@AlexanderTheGreater he will loose the power de-fact after the midterm elections

@1bets so, more reason to act now. SCOTUS still granted him immunity.

@AlexanderTheGreater thev war against Venezuela can't be successful on a ground

@1bets true, mid-terms are a strong pressure to at least delay any military escalation with Venezuela proper until after 2026 elections to limit losses in the house/senate. I think a literal war/air strikes/similar would be extremely unpopular. There’s only so far you can stretch claiming narcoterrorism and direct Venezuelan military/gov involvement is probably past that line.

Can somebody enlighten me on whether there is an oil reserve at stake here?

@Quroe yeah Venezuela is a major oil producer afaik

Ah. There it is then.

@Stralor looks like 18th largest and a member of OPEC. also pretty weak internationally (other than OPEC affiliation?) so it's potentially a weak point for disrupting non-US oil dominance

List of countries by oil extraction - Wikipedia

@Stralor from what I can tell from that list it's the largest oil producer directly in the US's shadow/"backyard" that's also a full OPEC member. from decades of political disruption in the region by the CIA, recent social instability, and the long narratives of drug production + fleeing refugees from South America in general it's a ripe target.

iirc there was also press about Venezuela setting up some cool social programs in the past year or two that could eventually give it more independence and stability, which is a no-no by US hegemony standards

@Quroe I thought Maduro had already offered US access to natural resources?

@AlexanderTheGreater More research is needed. I've been flying blind in this market. Let me see if I can follow up on that question at a later time.

@Quroe he did: https://www.nytimes.com/2025/10/10/world/americas/maduro-venezuela-us-oil.html?unlocked_article_code=1.6E8.lR-m.yngz7s4YmGcr&smid=url-share

@Stralor the point is Trump needs a puppet to rule Venezuela. But he is not able to remove Maduro from the country, Maduro is making jokes on Trump

@Quroe the front page of this website, where popular markets are

@Quroe you are missing the calendar..