In 2025, iff Half-Life 3 announced then US-Venezuela Conflict? (Resolves XNOR)
7
100Ṁ1083
Dec 31
73%
chance
17

Trader beware! This is one of my formerly infamous "inverting resolutions" markets. We're trying to measure the counterfactual without relying on a high chance of N/A. Are these two events at all vaguely correlated?

Resolution:

  • If both are true: YES

  • If one is true, one is false: NO

  • If both are false: YES

I will resolve according to the decisions made in these markets:

/Bandors/halflife-3-confirmed-by-eoy
/AlexanderTheGreater/military-conflict-between-the-us-an

If one of those N/As, I'll try to find a near-equivalent to replace it.

If you want to read more about how to read and bet effectively on a market like this and an analysis of the math behind it, check out my old /Stralor/inversion-resolutions-what-would-be

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filled a Ṁ6 YES at 56% order

I, too, enjoy this market format.

/Quroe/will-there-be-verifiable-evidence-t

Does the chronological order of these events matter? Or are we truly just applying the XNOR to these two input states?

@Quroe Just XNOR. I suspect there's no correlation, but Manifolders do be degenerate gamblers...

@Stralor It's only degenerate when you're not the house.

bought Ṁ500 YES

I can see why these markets are infamous, I’ve thought about betting onthis market like 4 times.

opened a Ṁ250 YES at 40% order

I put up some starting mirrors in lieu of real liquidity.

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