Lilo & Stitch is undervalued relative to Minecraft. The gross domestic difference is less than a million and was released later in the year.

@Blu32 it’s been completely out of theaters for two months and on the last day it was in theaters it made $186.

@Blu32 That was a reasonable theory in late August, when they did some kind of miniature rerelease and put it in 2K+ theaters for a little while ... it did gain a couple million in revenue
But unless you think they're doing that again over Christmas, forget it ... the total is the total

@BorisBartlog interesting. To be honest, I thought gross revenue included at home viewings 😅

@Blu32 I don't even think the site is updating for Lilo & Stitch anymore, the latest data it has is for October. I think that's why it was bet down to almost 0.

@spiderduckpig It's box office revenue ... so ... if it's not showing on the big screen anywhere, it will yield zero. It's not updating for L&S because it isn't in theaters any more.

@BorisBartlog Oh wow, I'm not that familiar with how the film industry works, so I didn't realize the drop-off in number of theaters showing is so absolute. I assumed there would still be a few stragglers and that theaters aren't so coordinated with each other

(just reread it’s for Domestic Market, proposing to update the market’s title then, seems needlessly confusing)

Other: Ne Zha 2

A little shocked by the dramatic shift against Wicked 2. With the higher opening weekend(relative to first) It merely has to perform as well as the first to surpass Minecraft . I took the opening weekend strength as a sign in favor of it staying the favorite, and shifted my position away from minecraft. Instead Wicked dropped to 10% odds as of this writing. I get the challenges it faces and likely wouldn't have shifted as far away from Minecraft as. I did in retrospect and might still see Minecraft has a slight favorite. But current odds seem way off base. The critic score is bad but the cinema score and audience score(most predictive of strong legs) are both higher than the first suggesting it should keep a strong legs. The current weekday totals and projections for this weekend will put it at $264 million by Nov 30 meaning only needing 160 million in December to beat Minecraft(Wicked earned 200 million in December during it's run). What am I missing?

@ShaneBo on mom/tues, w2 was ~1m behind w1 on the same day. On Wedn, it was 2.5m. I’m on my phone and haven’t run the numbers myself much, but w1 had legendarily good legs, and it’s clear that w2 is much more frontloaded. W2 opened bigger and has a head start but it needs unusually good legs to have a shot at catching Minecraft.

I got this one wrong—I guessed W2 had a good shot based on the opening projections and I should have paid more attention to people saying that the 2nd act of the musical was a mess and didn’t lend itself to the same endless repeat viewings that powered wicked through December.

@Ziddletwix Seems a reasonable assessment. Took a look at the numbers a bit deeper, seems to me if it's not able to crack $275 million cumulative by the end of the weekend it's got almost no chance(or where it's valued now), but if it gets to $300 million cumulative by end of weekend it probably has even odds to hit. Would need to make $125 over the last month versus the $169 million that Wicked 1 made, which seems very doable.

Current projections put it somewhere between 267-287 after the weekend. Which I'd say means it's probably still a bit undervalued from a EV point a view; if only a little bit. BUT if it hits $287 would say it should be closer to 30% and then increasing or decreasing based on next week. I'm kinda stuck with my current exposure now so will lean optimistic

Funny enough I read your comment last month and dismissed it, mostly sticking with Minecraft then when the weekend results hit I thought damn @Ziddletwix was right and made a complete shift into wicked haha

Fans of the musical did warn us that Act 2 was unsalvageable

@a_l_e_x yeah I should have listened

@Ziddletwix will buy YES wicked at 28%

god, the film industry is in a really bad place huh

Oh we're getting Avatar 3 this year? Nice. Pretty sure the rest of these are terrible.

@jim Big Jim will save us

@Ziddletwix Payakan is my friend

@Ziddletwix 🙏

why have things shifted so much in the past week?

as a zootopia 2 holder i’m happy but i don’t know what’s different since i bought it

@rigel six-week tracking is coming out, plus actual preview sales.

What am I missing here with zootopia 2. It's estimated to open about 30 million less on opening weekend than Minecraft got during the summer. It will only have 5 weeks of 2025 receipts to hit 430 million. Has to compete with wicked 2. Seems unlikely?

@gamedev true family movies like zootopia have a very different box office profile than other movies (minecraft was popular with kids, but isn't quite comparable, and didn't have great holds).

for a very naive ballpark estimate, zootopia 1 had a 75m OW, and after 35d (just using your 5w number, haven't counted this for myself) it had grossed 281m, so ~3.75x. if you expect zootopia 2 to have 30m smaller OW than minecraft, that's ~133m, the same ratio gets you to ~500m.

it's fair to doubt that multiplier, but a proper family movie that opens to 133m could easily outpace minecraft by EOY.

if i were actually looking at this in more detail, the thanksgiving holiday makes comps hard, so i'd start with moana 2 (another family movie sequel where the original became very popular on streaming, crucially, also released over thanksgiving). that ~130m projection is for the 3d OW, not 5d. moana 2's 5d OW was a monster 225m, but only ~139m for the 3d, not so far ahead of zootopia's 2 projection. moana 2 reached 404m by EOY, but z2 has an extra day, so let's call it ~410m for this comp. that's <430m, but moana 2 wasn't very well received, so it's not hard to expect it to have slightly better holds and get that extra 20m+.

ofc, the biggest uncertainty here is that OW projection. if z2 hits 140m+ in its 3d, i'd guess it has a fair shot at catching minecraft by EOY. if the projections are too high (or for whatever reason its 3d/5d OW ratio is much higher than moana 2), then it won't. there's a decent chance that after OW, we will be pretty certain that z2 will be way ahead or way behind minecraft by EOY.

given that this is manifold i should probably place bets rather than write explanations but the odds of this market are unlikely to get too far misaligned from polymarket anyways so it's hard to find extreme price differences & it's more interesting to discuss.

@Ziddletwix yeah same, I'm just here to learn. I guess that makes sense. Oh well Ive built a gigantic position on vibes already so nothing to do but sit and wait lol

@gamedev I think the trades/industry are hoping for a barbenheimer type phenomenon, wherein Zootopia and Wicked play to essentially different audiences and raise the overall box office through at least avatar, which will then do its avatar thing. but I'm not totally persuaded either Zootopia or Wicked really have great cases. Wicked's is at least pretty easy to understand. it just needs to do as well as wicked part 1, plus it has an extra day to do it with. @Ziddletwix makes the case well for Zootopia, but if anything I came away from reading it more bear-ish. but basically, if it opens as big as it's tracking for and has better holds than moana 2, it could do it. but I think its worth noting that frozen 2 opened four days earlier in 2019, and still only got to 430 by the end of the year.

That being said, I think Minecraft is a bit overrated at 40%, but quite underrated at 20% (which is where polymarket has it today). If you exclude 2020, you'd have to go back to 2014 to find a year where the highest grossing movie was under $475 million. Minecraft's $432 would have it as the fourth highest grossing movie of the year more often than even the second over that decade. So I think some of the skepticism is just that, that it can't possible end up being the highest grossing movie with just $432.